What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on Polymarket currently give this outcome a 93% probability. This means they see it as very likely, with roughly 9 in 10 odds, that Polymarket's website will get more monthly visitors than Robinhood's at some point in 2026. This is a significant forecast, as it pits a prediction market platform directly against one of the most recognizable names in retail investing.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors are driving this high confidence. First, the metric itself is specific. The market only requires Polymarket to have more visits for a single month in 2026, not for the entire year. This is a much easier bar to clear than maintaining consistent, long-term dominance.

Second, the platforms are on different trajectories. Robinhood, a mainstream stock and ETF trading app, has a massive user base but its web traffic can be stable. Polymarket, which lets users bet on real-world events, is a much smaller platform but is currently experiencing rapid growth. Traders are essentially betting that Polymarket's growth curve, even if from a smaller base, will spike high enough to briefly overtake Robinhood's steady traffic at least once. This reflects a belief in the expanding appeal of prediction markets as a concept.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The relevant timeline is the entire 2026 calendar year. SimilarWeb data is published monthly, so each new data release from January 2026 onward will be a potential trigger for the market to resolve to "Yes." There is no single event date. Instead, watch for news cycles that could drive surges in traffic to either site. For Polymarket, this could be during a major election or a viral cultural event with active markets. For Robinhood, it could be during periods of high stock market volatility or major product launches. The market will finally close by January 31, 2027, once all 2026 data is available.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a solid track record in forecasting binary outcomes like this one, often outperforming polls and pundits. However, this specific question has unique limitations. It depends entirely on a third-party data source (SimilarWeb), whose methodology for estimating web traffic is not perfect. Discrepancies or changes in how SimilarWeb counts visits could theoretically affect the result. While the market's odds show strong consensus, they ultimately reflect a bet on a single metric from one analytics company.