Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

Name: Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$969.31

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Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

Vol

$969.31

Events

Markets

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Polymarket

markets · $969.31

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $969.31

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	54%
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	21%
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	20%
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	16%
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$969.31

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party pass

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Reservists – New Economic Party's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Reservists – New Economic Party pass

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Reservists – New Economic Party party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $969
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 13.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.75-4.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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