
$371.43K
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$371.43K
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11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the precise price of Ethereum (ETH) on January 16, as measured by the closing price of a specific one-minute trading candle on the Binance exchange. The resolution mechanism is highly technical, using the 'Close' price of the ETH/USDT trading pair at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time (ET) on that date, as recorded on Binance's public charting interface. This creates a binary outcome for traders, who must predict whether the price will fall within a specific, predetermined bracket. The topic sits at the intersection of cryptocurrency price speculation, exchange mechanics, and the growing field of prediction markets, where participants wager on the outcome of future events. Interest stems from Ethereum's status as the world's second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and a foundational platform for decentralized applications. Recent developments, including network upgrades like the Dencun hard fork and the ongoing evolution of its proof-of-stake consensus, directly influence its market valuation. Traders and analysts monitor such technical milestones, macroeconomic factors like interest rates, and broader crypto market sentiment to inform their price predictions for specific future dates.
Ethereum's price history is marked by extreme volatility and defined by major technological and market cycles. Launched in 2015 with an initial price of roughly $0.30, ETH saw its first major bull run in 2017, peaking near $1,400 in January 2018, driven by the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom that largely built on its platform. This was followed by a prolonged bear market, with prices collapsing below $100 in late 2018. The next cycle began in 2020 with the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), both predominantly Ethereum-based, pushing ETH to an all-time high of approximately $4,800 in November 2021. The subsequent market downturn in 2022, exacerbated by the collapse of entities like Terra/Luna and FTX, saw ETH fall below $900. A critical historical pivot was 'The Merge' in September 2022, where Ethereum transitioned from energy-intensive proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus. This fundamental change to the network's economics, reducing new issuance, is a permanent feature analysts consider when modeling future price. Past price action on specific calendar dates often reflects the culmination of these broader cycles, regulatory news, or macroeconomic events.
The price of Ethereum on a specific future date matters because it serves as a high-resolution barometer for the health and perceived value of the entire Web3 ecosystem. As the primary settlement layer for decentralized finance, NFTs, and countless other applications, ETH's valuation directly impacts the cost of operation and economic viability for thousands of projects and developers building on its network. For investors and institutions, precise price predictions are crucial for risk management, derivatives trading, and portfolio allocation. The outcome of markets predicting such prices also contributes to the concept of 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially generating a more efficient market forecast than individual analysts. Downstream consequences affect venture funding in crypto startups, the treasury management of DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) that hold ETH, and the broader public perception of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class.
As of late 2023 and early 2024, Ethereum's price is consolidating after a significant rally from the 2022 lows, with traders closely monitoring several concurrent developments. The key immediate focus is on the potential approval of a spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States, with final SEC decisions on applications from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity expected in the coming months. This regulatory uncertainty creates a holding pattern. Simultaneously, the network continues its upgrade path with the successful implementation of the Dencun hard fork in March 2024, which introduced proto-danksharding to significantly reduce layer-2 transaction costs. The market is digesting the impact of this upgrade on network usage and demand.
Ethereum's price is influenced by a combination of network-specific fundamentals, broader market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. Key factors include adoption of its ecosystem (DeFi, NFTs), the pace and success of technical upgrades (like Dencun), regulatory developments (especially regarding ETFs), Bitcoin's price movements, and traditional financial indicators like interest rates and inflation.
The price of ETH/USDT on Binance is determined by the continuous matching of buy and sell orders on its order book. It is a global, 24/7 market where the last traded price between a buyer and seller establishes the current market rate. The exchange aggregates liquidity from millions of users worldwide.
A price prediction is a forecast, often from an analyst or model. A prediction market like this one is a financial mechanism where participants trade contracts whose payout is tied directly to the outcome (the exact price on January 16). The market price of the contract itself reflects the crowd's aggregated probability of that outcome.
Using a one-minute 'Close' price at a specific, pre-defined time (12:00 noon ET) creates a precise, objective, and tamper-resistant settlement value. It eliminates ambiguity that could arise from using a daily average or a price from a volatile moment, ensuring clear and fair resolution for all market participants.
The market description includes a fallback condition: 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".' This means if the specified Binance price feed is unavailable or inaccessible at the exact resolution moment, the market would settle negatively, protecting traders from uncertainty due to exchange failure.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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