This event has ended. Showing historical data.
Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (W)
Total Volume
$14.65
Events
1
Markets
1
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (W)
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $14.65
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $14.65
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (W)
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
100%
Top Probability
$14.65
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the WBB game between Kansas State Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils on February 1 at 4:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets give Kansas State a 9% chance to win this specific college basketball game. In simpler terms, traders see about a 1 in 11 likelihood of a Wildcats victory. This shows a strong collective belief that Texas Tech is the clear favorite to win when they play on February 21.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain these low odds for Kansas State. First, the game is being played at Texas Tech’s home court in Lubbock. Home teams in major conferences win roughly two-thirds of the time, giving the Red Raiders a built-in advantage. Second, the teams’ recent performance points in opposite directions. Texas Tech is ranked in the AP Top 25 and is competing for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Kansas State has struggled in Big 12 conference play, with a record well below .500. Historical matchups also support this view, as Texas Tech has won the last several meetings between these teams.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself, tipping off at 2:30 PM ET on February 21. The only development that could shift the prediction before then would be a significant, last-minute announcement about a key player’s health. A major injury to a Texas Tech starter could make the market reassess the odds. Otherwise, the next signal to watch is simply the final score.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally quite accurate when there is a clear favorite. Markets effectively combine public betting odds, computer rankings, and team momentum into a single probability. However, their accuracy decreases for very low-probability events (like a 9% chance), because an unexpected hot shooting night or a strange officiating call can always cause an upset. While the market is likely correct about who is favored, the actual game always has room for a surprise.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market on Polymarket prices the "Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders" outcome at just 9 cents, implying a 9% probability. This is an extremely low chance, indicating the market views this specific event—likely a precise game outcome or margin of victory—as highly unlikely. With only $2,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin. This low volume can amplify price swings and means the current odds may not fully reflect informed consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 9% price directly reflects the challenging nature of the condition being predicted. For a college basketball game, this contract likely specifies a narrow scenario, such as Kansas State winning by exactly a certain point spread or a specific combined score total. The broad moneyline on this game likely favors one team significantly, making a precise outcome a low-probability bet. Texas Tech entered this contest with a stronger conference record and home-court advantage, which historically pressures opponents. Kansas State's inconsistent offensive performance on the road this season makes hitting an exact target difficult. The market is effectively pricing the high variance of a single game against a very specific condition.
What Could Change These Odds
Game-time dynamics are the primary catalyst. A key player's early foul trouble, an unusual shooting performance, or a deliberate end-of-game strategy to manipulate the score could shift the probability. In a low-liquidity market like this, a single moderate-sized bet could move the price substantially, even without a change in the fundamental outlook. The 9% price is sensitive to any pre-game news, such as a last-minute injury report or a confirmed change in the starting lineup. Once the game tips off, the odds will update in real time based on the gamescript, with the price potentially spiking if the game state approaches the specific condition outlined in the contract.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.