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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat? | Poly | 88% |
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat? | Poly | 12% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district, known as OK-05. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in the November 4, 2026, midterm election. The district covers most of Oklahoma County, including the state capital of Oklahoma City, and portions of Pottawatomie and Seminole counties. It is one of five congressional districts in Oklahoma and has been represented by a Republican since 1975. The seat is currently held by Representative Stephanie Bice, who was first elected in 2020. The 2026 election will be part of nationwide midterms where all 435 House seats are contested, occurring during what would be the second half of a presidential term. Interest in this market stems from tracking whether the district maintains its long Republican streak or if demographic shifts or political realignments could make it competitive. The district's political behavior often serves as a bellwether for suburban trends within the Republican coalition, particularly in the South. Observers monitor fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national political winds to gauge the seat's vulnerability.
Oklahoma's 5th District has a political history defined by Republican dominance since the mid-1970s. The district was represented by Democrat John Jarman from 1951 to 1975, but he switched to the Republican Party in January 1975 and did not seek reelection later that year. Republican Mickey Edwards then won the seat in the 1976 election and held it for 16 years. The district's modern era began with Republican Ernest Istook's election in 1992. Istook served until 2006, when he ran for governor. Republican Mary Fallin won the seat in 2006 and served until 2014, when she was elected governor. Republican Steve Russell held the seat from 2015 to 2019. The district's long Republican streak was broken in the 2018 midterms, a wave election for Democrats. Democrat Kendra Horn defeated Russell by a margin of 3,338 votes (50.7% to 49.3%), a major upset in a district President Trump had carried by 13 points in 2016. Horn's victory was short-lived. In the 2020 election, Republican Stephanie Bice defeated Horn by 19,495 votes (52.1% to 47.9%), returning the district to Republican control. Bice solidified her hold in 2022, defeating Democrat Joshua Harris-Till with 60.1% of the vote. This history shows the district is reliably Republican but can be vulnerable under specific national conditions, as demonstrated in 2018.
The outcome of the OK-05 race matters for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Every seat is critical in a closely divided chamber; a party flip in OK-05 could directly impact which party controls the House and sets the legislative agenda. For Oklahoma, the election determines representation on key committees that influence federal spending on military installations like Tinker Air Force Base, which is a major economic engine within the district. The race also serves as a political indicator. OK-05, with its mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters, reflects national political tensions within the Republican coalition, particularly between traditional conservatives and more populist movements. A strong Democratic performance here could signal broader challenges for Republicans in similar suburban districts across the Sun Belt. Conversely, a robust Republican victory would affirm the party's strength in Oklahoma despite national headwinds. The campaign will also test messages on key issues like energy policy, given Oklahoma's status as a major oil and gas producer, and federal spending, which directly impacts the district's economy.
As of late 2024, the 2026 race for OK-05 is in its earliest stages. No major candidates have formally declared their intention to run. Incumbent Representative Stephanie Bice is widely expected to seek reelection but has not made an official announcement. The district's boundaries, last redrawn in 2021 following the 2020 census, will remain unchanged for the 2026 election. The political environment is shaped by the upcoming 2024 presidential election, whose outcome will set the national context for the 2026 midterms. Local party organizations are focused on the 2024 elections, with serious candidate recruitment and fundraising for OK-05 likely to begin in earnest in 2025.
The current U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district is Republican Stephanie Bice. She was first elected in November 2020 and took office in January 2021. Bice previously served in the Oklahoma State Senate.
A Democrat last won Oklahoma's 5th District in the 2018 midterm election. Kendra Horn, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Steve Russell in an upset. She served one term from January 2019 to January 2021 before losing to Stephanie Bice.
The district encompasses most of Oklahoma County, including the state capital of Oklahoma City and suburbs like Edmond, Bethany, and The Village. It also includes all of Pottawatomie and Seminole counties, containing cities such as Shawnee and Seminole.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the November 4, 2026, general election for the U.S. House seat in OK-05. The party is determined by the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation when major media outlets and election authorities conclusively call the race.
The district is considered 'likely Republican' but not completely safe. It has a Cook PVI of R+10 and voted for Trump by 6.7 points in 2020. However, a Democrat won it in 2018, proving it can be competitive under the right national conditions, particularly in midterm elections.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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