Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

Total Volume

$17.41K

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Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.41K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.41K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?	Kalshi	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$17.41K

Volume

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About This Event

Before 2027 If the International Monetary Fund declares the world is in recession before 2027 in one of their World Economic Outlook reports, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If the International Monetary Fund declares the world is in recession before 2027 in one of their World Economic Outlook reports, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the International Monetary Fund declares the world is in recession before 2027 in one of their World Economic Outlook reports, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.14M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $17.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

19¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/RwUeNC" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?"></iframe>

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Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

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Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)