Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
PM $7.1K · K 13.0K contracts
2
2
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
PM $7.1K · K 13.0K contracts
2
2
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $7.1K · K 13.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Before 2027 If any America Party candidate appears on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T09:00:05.810Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether "any America Party candidate" will appear "on a federal or gubernatorial ballot." The source states that if this happens "before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The rule therefore turns on two conditions: a candidate's appearance on a qualifying ballot, and a cutoff of January 1, 2027. The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. So the market may end before its listed close if the ballot event happens first.
The saved record includes an end date of 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z [1]. This does not match the January 1, 2027 cutoff in the resolution wording. The provider excerpt separately says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Because the evidence does not explain this difference, readers should rely on the resolution wording and check the provider's own page for the closing terms.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T09:00:05.810Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T09:07:16.982Z [1]. It is a record of quoted prices at that time, not a current or executable quote, and it is not a verified probability. The quoted prices are Yes at 0.0875 and No at 0.9125 [1]. These two prices sum to one in this snapshot, but the snapshot does not show spreads, depth, or the price at which a trade could be filled.
Coverage is limited to one market from one provider event, with all saved markets included and no partial sample flagged [1]. Since there is only one contract, there are no other outcomes to compare. The record does not include volume, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or how many people are trading.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price is at its current level. It also does not say whether any America Party candidate has been placed on a ballot, what filing deadlines apply, or whether the early-close condition is close to being met. The mismatch between the January 1, 2027 cutoff and the January 8, 2027 listed end date is unresolved in the supplied material. Readers comparing this contract with similar markets on other platforms should first check that the resolution wording, cutoff, and close times match.
References
- Kalshi: Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T09:00:05.810Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi contract asks whether any America Party candidate will appear on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before January 1, 2027. The contract rules state that if this happens, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The provider also says the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The contract is therefore tied to a ballot-access event rather than to a specific election result. The rules are narrow. They do not require a candidate to win, and they do not name a particular office or state. Any appearance of an America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before the deadline would satisfy the wording as written [1]. The provider's category is listed as Elections, and the market status was active when the provider record was saved [1]. The contract's date needs careful reading. The rules refer to January 1, 2027 [1]. The provider's saved market record lists an end date of January 8, 2027 [1]. The provider's event record also states that a listed end time was not supplied [1]. Because the resolution language refers to appearance before January 1, 2027, the rules text is the more direct guide to the contract's condition, while the listed end date is a provider field that should be checked against the live rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a single political party's candidates reach a federal or gubernatorial ballot within a defined window. Its wording makes the question about a threshold event, not a forecast of vote share or of which candidate wins. A Yes outcome requires only that one America Party candidate appear on such a ballot before January 1, 2027, and the provider states that the market closes early once that event occurs [1]. The Wikipedia pages in the supporting material describe scheduled elections, not America Party ballot access. One page states that the 2027 Kentucky gubernatorial election will be held on November 2, 2027, with primaries on May 18, 2027, and that the winner will succeed the term-limited incumbent Andy Beshear [2]. Another states that gubernatorial elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, in 36 states and three territories [3]. These pages describe the election calendar, but they do not show that any America Party candidate is on a ballot, so they do not by themselves bear on how this contract resolves [2][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Yes?
The contract resolves to Yes if any America Party candidate appears on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before January 1, 2027 [1].
Does the contract require a specific office or state?
The rule text refers to a federal or gubernatorial ballot without naming a particular office or state [1].
Why does the market close early?
The provider states that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Do the supporting Wikipedia pages show America Party candidates on ballots?
The supporting pages describe the 2027 Kentucky gubernatorial election and the scheduled 2026 United States gubernatorial elections [2][3]. They do not mention America Party candidates, so they do not establish whether any such candidate appears on a ballot.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
