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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-06 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the CO-06 House seat? | Poly | 10% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Colorado's 6th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets and official election results following the November 4, 2026, election. Colorado's 6th district is a politically competitive area encompassing the eastern suburbs of Denver, including Aurora and parts of Adams and Douglas counties. The district's demographic shifts and suburban voter base make it a consistent battleground in national House elections. The 2026 race will be closely watched as part of the broader midterm elections, where control of the House will be at stake. Political analysts and investors follow this district because its outcome often reflects national political trends and can signal which party has momentum heading into the next presidential election cycle. The district's recent history of close elections and changing partisan control generates significant interest in forecasting its results.
Colorado's 6th congressional district was created following the 1980 census and has experienced significant political evolution. For its first three decades, the district was reliably Republican, represented by figures like Dan Schaefer and Tom Tancredo. The district's political landscape began shifting with demographic changes in the 2010s, particularly in Aurora and surrounding suburbs. In 2018, Democrat Jason Crow defeated six-term Republican incumbent Mike Coffman, flipping the seat for the first time in the district's history. Crow's victory was part of a broader suburban realignment that saw educated suburban voters move toward Democratic candidates during the Trump presidency. The 2022 midterms tested whether this shift was permanent, with Crow winning re-election by a comfortable margin despite national Republican gains. The district's voting patterns have made it a bellwether for suburban political trends nationwide, with its election outcomes often mirroring the national popular vote for the House of Representatives.
The outcome of the CO-06 House election has implications beyond district representation. As a competitive suburban district, its results provide insight into voter sentiment among college-educated suburbanites, a key demographic that determines control of Congress. The district's large military and veteran population, concentrated around Buckley Space Force Base, makes defense and veterans policy particularly relevant to the campaign. Economically, the district includes both affluent suburbs and working-class communities, making issues like housing costs, transportation infrastructure, and economic opportunity central to the race. The election outcome will influence which party controls the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities on taxation, healthcare, and climate policy. Downstream consequences include the district's influence on military spending decisions, given its proximity to defense installations, and its role in shaping Colorado's political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
As of early 2025, Representative Jason Crow has not formally announced his re-election plans for 2026, though he is widely expected to seek a fifth term. The Colorado state legislature will redraw congressional district boundaries in 2025 based on population changes, which could alter the district's partisan composition. No Republican candidates have officially declared for the 2026 race, though party officials indicate they are actively recruiting challengers. National political committees have identified CO-06 as a potential target district depending on the national political environment in 2026. Local party organizations are conducting voter outreach and building volunteer networks in preparation for the election cycle.
Colorado's 6th district includes most of Aurora, the state's third-largest city, along with parts of Centennial, Brighton, and unincorporated areas of Arapahoe and Adams counties. The district also contains portions of the Denver Tech Center and Buckley Space Force Base.
The district voted for Joe Biden by 13.4 points in 2020 and for Hillary Clinton by 8.7 points in 2016. Before 2016, it had voted Republican in every presidential election since its creation in 1982, including Mitt Romney's 5-point win in 2012.
Candidates will formally declare through 2026, with party primaries scheduled for June 2026. The filing deadline for candidates is typically in March 2026, though some candidates may announce their intentions more than a year before the election.
Colorado uses an independent redistricting commission that will redraw congressional boundaries in 2025. The commission must consider population equality, geographic continuity, and communities of interest, which could slightly alter the district's boundaries before the 2026 election.
Key issues typically include affordable housing and cost of living, transportation infrastructure (particularly along the I-225 corridor), military and veterans affairs due to Buckley Space Force Base, and environmental policies affecting the semi-arid Front Range region.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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