Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | PredictPedia

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Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

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Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

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Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

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Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%

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$2.87K

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will q

Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Conrad Kramer departing OpenAI by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at 22¢, implying the market sees only a 22% chance of his exit within this timeframe. This price suggests the consensus view is that Kramer will remain with the company, with the market viewing a departure as a possible but unlikely outcome over the next 349 days.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are suppressing the probability of departure. First, Conrad Kramer is a key technical leader at OpenAI, having co-created the Codex model and contributed significantly to core AI safety and capability research. His deep, specialized integration into OpenAI's long-term technical roadmap makes his continued involvement valuable for both parties. Second, there is no public indication of friction or a planned exit. Unlike the high-profile executive departures that have periodically shaken the AI industry, Kramer's position appears stable, with no recent news or rumors suggesting imminent change. The market is effectively pricing in continuity based on his current role and the absence of disruptive signals.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds could shift significantly with specific catalysts. An unexpected reorganization within OpenAI's research divisions or a strategic pivot away from Kramer's core expertise in AI systems and safety could prompt a reevaluation. Furthermore, if the competitive AI talent landscape intensifies, a lucrative offer from a rival lab or a new venture could present a compelling reason for departure. The market will be most sensitive to any official statements from OpenAI or Kramer himself regarding his role or future plans. Given the resolution date is December 31, 2026, any such news in the coming months would cause immediate and substantial price movement in this currently low-liquidity market.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Overview

This prediction market topic concerns the employment status of Conrad Kramer at OpenAI, specifically whether he will depart the company by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Kramer ceases any formal employment or contractual involvement with OpenAI for any length of time before that deadline, including termination, suspension, or withdrawal of obligations. An official announcement from either OpenAI or Kramer confirming his departure would be sufficient to trigger resolution. Conrad Kramer is a notable figure in the artificial intelligence field, having co-founded the AI research company, Embodied Intelligence, which was acquired by OpenAI in 2021. His work focuses on robotics and AI, making his continued role at OpenAI significant for the company's strategic direction in physical AI systems. Interest in this market stems from observing executive mobility within the highly competitive AI sector, where talent retention is critical. Kramer's potential departure would signal internal shifts at OpenAI or broader industry trends regarding the convergence of AI and robotics. The market allows participants to speculate on organizational stability and the personal career trajectory of a key technical leader during a period of rapid AI advancement.

Historical Context

The context for this prediction market is rooted in the history of talent acquisition and retention within the AI industry, particularly at OpenAI. OpenAI was founded in December 2015 as a non-profit AI research lab, later restructuring to include a capped-profit arm in 2019 to attract investment and talent. A significant precedent was set with the acquisition of Embodied Intelligence in October 2021. This acquisition brought Conrad Kramer and his co-founders into OpenAI to advance its robotics division, which had previously been deprioritized in 2021 before this strategic reinvestment. Historically, OpenAI has experienced notable departures. In 2020, co-founder Elon Musk distanced himself from the company. More recently, in May 2024, co-founder and Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever departed after a period of internal tension, including the brief ousting and reinstatement of CEO Sam Altman in November 2023. These events demonstrate that even foundational members can leave, making the tenure of acquired talent like Kramer a subject of speculation. The competitive landscape also provides context, with companies like Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and various robotics startups actively recruiting top AI researchers, creating constant pull factors for experienced personnel.

Why It Matters

The question of Conrad Kramer's departure matters because it serves as a barometer for OpenAI's stability and its commitment to long-term, high-risk research areas like robotics. Retaining key researchers from acquisitions is crucial for realizing the strategic value of those purchases. If Kramer were to leave, it could signal difficulties in integrating acquired teams or a shift in OpenAI's priorities away from embodied AI, potentially slowing progress in making AI systems interact with the physical world. This has broader implications for the AI industry's trajectory. The movement of top researchers between companies shapes the competitive landscape, influencing where breakthroughs occur. For investors and observers, executive and researcher retention is a key metric of a company's health and its ability to execute on ambitious roadmaps. Downstream consequences could include impacts on OpenAI's partnerships, its valuation in future funding rounds, and the morale of other technical staff within the organization, potentially triggering further departures.

Current Status

As of late 2024, Conrad Kramer remains employed as a research scientist at OpenAI, continuing work on robotics and AI projects stemming from the Embodied Intelligence acquisition. There have been no public announcements or credible reports indicating his imminent departure. The most recent high-profile departure from OpenAI was Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever in May 2024, which renewed attention on the retention of other senior technical staff. OpenAI continues to operate and expand, with ongoing projects in various AI domains, including robotics where Kramer's expertise is applied. The company's leadership under Sam Altman appears stable following the November 2023 governance crisis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Conrad Kramer?

Conrad Kramer is a research scientist at OpenAI who co-founded the robotics AI company Embodied Intelligence. OpenAI acquired his company in 2021, and he now works on developing AI for physical systems and robots within OpenAI's research division.

What did Embodied Intelligence do?

Embodied Intelligence was a startup that developed AI software to teach industrial robots complex tasks through imitation learning and simulation. The company's technology focused on making robots more adaptable and capable of performing dexterous operations without explicit programming for every scenario.

Why would Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI?

Potential reasons could include pursuing a new startup opportunity, joining a competitor, disagreements over research direction, or a desire to return to academia. The competitive AI talent market and historical precedents of senior departures at OpenAI make such a move plausible within the prediction market's timeframe.

How does this prediction market resolve?

The market resolves to 'Yes' if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI for any length of time on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement from OpenAI or Kramer confirming his departure would be a key resolving event.

Has OpenAI had other major departures?

Yes, OpenAI has experienced significant departures. Most notably, co-founder and Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever left in May 2024. Other earlier departures include co-founder Elon Musk in 2018 and several researchers who have left for other AI labs or to start their own companies over the years.

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Updated Jan 16, 2026

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will q

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
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**Constraints:**
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