Name: Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $481.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $481.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	11%
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	10%
Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	8%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	4%
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	2%
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$481.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event tha

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (45 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event tha

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will res"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $481.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $188.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $72.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $42.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $47.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $22.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $22.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $41.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $41.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $145.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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