Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].

The listed end time is 2026-10-20T04:20:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time, not its resolution time. The evidence does not show when or how the contract was resolved.

Reading the snapshot

The quoted prices were observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:57:16.601Z [1]. The saved outcomes are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a single observation, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000, which means the snapshot shows no spread between them.

The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The provider notes say that all saved markets for this event are included, but that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary contract with only one saved event, there is no comparison to other contracts or platforms in this evidence.

Volume is not part of the supplied outcome prices, so this snapshot does not indicate liquidity or how many traders took part.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels at the observation time. It also does not show prices after 06:00 UTC on October 19, 2026, so the snapshot should not be treated as a current quote. Anyone comparing this contract with a similar one on another platform should check each contract's exact rules, resolution source, and closing time first. Differences in wording or timing mean the prices may not measure the same event.

References

1. Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.