GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2030?

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US real GDP growth in 2030?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

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14 markets tracked

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)	Kalshi	15%
GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)	Kalshi	13%
GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)	Kalshi	13%
GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)	Kalshi	12%
GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)	Kalshi	11%
GDP growth in 2030? (1.1% to 1.5%)	Kalshi	10%
GDP growth in 2030? (0.6% to 1.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2030? (4.1% to 4.5%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2030? (0.1% to 0.5%)	Kalshi	7%
GDP growth in 2030? (3.6% to 4.0%)	Kalshi	5%
GDP growth in 2030? (6.1% or Above)	Kalshi	5%
GDP growth in 2030? (4.6% to 5.0%)	Kalshi	4%
GDP growth in 2030? (5.6% to 6.0%)	Kalshi	1%
GDP growth in 2030? (5.1% to 5.5%)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

15%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

2030 If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2030 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2030 GDP in early 2031. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US real GDP growth in 2030?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2030

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2030 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2030 GDP in early 2031. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is above 6.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. GDP growth in 2030? (6.1% or Above)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. GDP growth in 2030? (5.6% to 6.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. GDP growth in 2030? (5.1% to 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. GDP growth in 2030? (4.6% to 5.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. GDP growth in 2030? (4.1% to 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. GDP growth in 2030? (3.6% to 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. GDP growth in 2030? (1.1% to 1.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. GDP growth in 2030? (0.6% to 1.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. GDP growth in 2030? (0.1% to 0.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2030?

Volume$0.00

Markets14

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KALSHI

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration V

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GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

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Events (1)

US real GDP growth in 2030?

Markets (14)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

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US real GDP growth in 2030?

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2030? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

GDP growth in 2030? (3.1% to 3.5%)

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