What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give Anthony Albanese about a 1 in 4 chance of leaving the Prime Minister's office before the end of 2026. This means traders collectively see it as unlikely he will be removed or resign in that timeframe. The 23% probability suggests a stable outlook, but not complete certainty, for his tenure over the next two and a half years.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain the low probability of a change. First, Albanese’s Labor Party holds a majority in the House of Representatives. Australia’s political system makes it very difficult to remove a sitting prime minister from their own party between elections without a major internal revolt. The last such removal occurred in 2018.

Second, while the government faces political challenges, including cost-of-living pressures and slipping poll numbers, no immediate crisis threatens Albanese’s leadership. The next federal election is due by May 2025. The market odds imply traders believe Albanese is likely to lead Labor into that election, with the question of his departure hinging on the election result rather than an early exit.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The most important date is the next federal election, which must be held by May 2025. A decisive loss for Labor could see Albanese step down as party leader shortly after. Before that, watch for the party’s performance in by-elections and state elections. A significant drop in published opinion polls, especially those measuring Albanese’s personal approval or preferred prime minister ratings, could increase internal party pressure. Any major scandal or severe economic downturn could also shift predictions quickly.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on political leadership questions in stable democracies. They often effectively aggregate information about institutional rules, like the difficulty of ousting a majority-party leader. However, they can be slow to price in sudden scandals or rapid shifts in party sentiment. For this specific question, the market is thin, with only a few thousand dollars wagered. This means the current price may be less robust than for heavily traded markets and could move more on new information.