Name: What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
End: 2026-04-29T00:00:00.000Z

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What will Powell say during April Press Conference? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $109.44K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $109.44K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	Poly	99%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	Poly	76%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	Poly	76%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Poly	74%
Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	Poly	62%
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	Poly	59%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?	Poly	58%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Poly	56%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	Poly	56%
Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?	Poly	46%
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	Poly	31%
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?	Poly	30%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?	Poly	25%
Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	Poly	17%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

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99%

Top Probability

$109.44K

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About This Event

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word wil

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 29, 2026 (11 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word wil

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOM"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $109.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $20.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $582
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $330
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $699
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $12.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $16.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $10.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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