BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary market from Polymarket titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The stated resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T04:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of when resolution occurred. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T07:06:13Z [1]. These are past snapshot times. They describe the saved data, not live conditions at the time you read this.
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record, which is consistent with a binary pair, but the saved data does not show spreads, depth, or how the prices would have changed under trading.
Coverage is complete for this record: one market was saved and one was included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Because this is a single contract, there is no cross-market comparison to make. The volume field is not in the excerpt, and this summary does not treat any volume figure as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Up price sits slightly above the Down price, and this summary does not attribute the snapshot to any event or trend. It also does not show whether the price has changed since the observation time.
The contract's wording is specific. It resolves on Chainlink's TWAP stream rather than spot markets, so a reader comparing this contract to a BNB price quoted elsewhere should expect the rules to differ. Any comparison across platforms would need to match resolution sources, time windows, and closing times, and this record alone does not support one.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window crypto contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET" [1]. The contract is listed in the crypto category and is tied to the price of BNB measured over a five-minute window. According to the provider's rules, the market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome is determined by that specific data feed, so a reader should check the rules on the provider's page rather than comparing against other exchanges or price tickers. The provider's listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-20T04:35:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time under its listed terms. It is not an announced event or a separate deadline for any other action. In the saved market snapshot, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495, observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z [1]. These figures are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome. The small gap between the two prices does not by itself indicate which result is more likely, and the price difference across this or any other contract does not create an opportunity to trade for profit.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB price movement over one specific five-minute window, as recorded by a particular Chainlink data stream [1]. Because the comparison is between the average price across the window and the price at the window's start, the result depends on the average over the period rather than only the closing price. The rules also make clear that the outcome is tied to the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP feed and not to spot markets or other sources [1]. Readers interested in the contract should focus on those specific rules, the listed end time, and the resolution source named by the provider [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB from the Chainlink TWAP data stream over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source is used to settle the market?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The provider states that other sources and spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
What does the listed end time represent?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-20T04:35:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed closing time, and it should be distinguished from the time when the outcome is determined or confirmed under the rules.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.