Game Awards: Best Mobile Game
PM $37.2K · K 9.6K contracts
2
24
Game Awards: Best Mobile Game
PM $37.2K · K 9.6K contracts
2
24
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Arknights: Endfield is priced at 36% on Polymarket and 36% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arknights: EndfieldSame question, fine print differs | 36% | 36% | 0.0 pts |
| Monster Hunter OutlandersSame question, fine print differs | 14% | 16% | 2.0 pts |
| NTE: Neverness to EvernessSame question, fine print differs | 9.9% | 9.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Wuthering WavesSame question, fine print differs | 7.6% | 6% | 1.6 pts |
| Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six MobileSame question, fine print differs | 4% | 4.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Valorant MobileSame question, fine print differs | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.3 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $37.2K · K 9.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
24
Saved contracts
6
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Best Mobile Game | 2026 If X has won Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Game Awards. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close following the release of the winners of the Game Awards.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers the Kalshi event "Game Awards: Best Mobile Game" and its 12 binary contracts, one for each listed title. The rule in the source is that "If X has won Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each contract therefore asks whether one specific title wins, and each resolves on the Game Awards result rather than on a price or a poll. The source also states that "This market will close following the release of the winners of the Game Awards." [1] That wording ties closing to the announcement of winners, not to a fixed clock time.
The market records carry an end date of 2026-12-31T15:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] Read the record's end date as a platform field, not as an announced ceremony or results date. The evidence does not confirm when winners will be announced.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T08:03:56.316Z. These are the times for this snapshot. They are not evidence of live prices now, and the status shown is "active" at observation.
The highest Yes price is Arknights: Endfield at 0.34, followed by Monster Hunter Outlanders and Pokémon Champions at 0.15 each, and NTE: Neverness to Everness and Where Winds Meet at 0.10 each. The lower-priced contracts range from 0.045 for Rainbow Six Mobile down to 0.015 for Valorant Mobile. [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices in this sample add up to about 1.05, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. Volume is not included in this evidence and should not be read as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows 12 total markets, 12 included, and no partial sample. [1] The source also states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] So the list is complete for this saved Kalshi event, but it does not prove that no other title could win.
No other platform is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not include news, trader agreement, or past forecasting performance.
References
- Kalshi: Game Awards: Best Mobile Game. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Game Awards is an annual awards ceremony that honors achievements in the video game industry [2]. It was established in 2014, and the shows are produced and hosted by game journalist Geoff Keighley [2]. Keighley had worked on the predecessor, the Spike Video Game Awards, for over ten years before creating the Game Awards with several video game companies [2]. Besides the awards, the ceremony features premieres of upcoming games and new information on previously announced titles [2]. The contract discussed here is a prediction market titled "Game Awards: Best Mobile Game" on the Kalshi platform. It asks whether a specific game will win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards [1]. Each market in the saved event is a separate Yes or No contract on one named game. The saved event contains 12 markets, and all of them are included in the record. The provider's status for the event was active at the recorded observation time [1]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Game Awards [1]. The contract therefore depends on the Game Awards' announced winners, not on any official relationship between the platform and the ceremony.
Historical Context
The Game Awards was established in 2014 [2]. Its creator, Geoff Keighley, had previously worked on the Spike Video Game Awards for more than ten years before developing the Game Awards with several video game companies [2]. The Game Awards 2025 was the twelfth show Keighley hosted. It was held on December 11, 2025, at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles and live streamed online [3]. The sources provided do not describe the 2026 ceremony's date or format, so this background covers only the history of the show up to the 2025 event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one outcome: whether the named game wins Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards [1]. If it does, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The market is tied to the official announcement of winners, since it closes after the winners are released [1]. Because the Game Awards is the event that determines the result, the contract is a way to trade expectations about that single category at that ceremony [1][2]. The saved market lists an end date of December 31, 2026. That date appears in the market record, but the provider's listed end time for the event was not supplied [1]. A date in the contract data is not an announced ceremony date, so the event's actual timing should be read from the Game Awards' own announcements rather than from this field.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Best Mobile Game contract resolve on?
Each contract resolves to Yes if the named game wins Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards [1].
When does the market close?
The provider says the market closes following the release of the Game Awards winners [1]. The provider did not supply a listed end time for the event [1].
Is Kalshi connected to the Game Awards?
Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Game Awards [1].
Who produces and hosts the Game Awards?
The show is produced and hosted by game journalist Geoff Keighley [2]. He is described as the creator and producer of the Game Awards [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
6
Largest saved gap: 2.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
