Name: Will the 10-year treasury hit __ in April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Will the 10-year treasury hit __ in April? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?	Poly	82%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?	Poly	70%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?	Poly	39%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?	Poly	34%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?	Poly	20%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.10% (LOW) in April?	Poly	17%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.50% (HIGH) in April?	Poly	13%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?	Poly	3%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.60% (HIGH) in April?	Poly	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the 10-year treasury hit __ in April?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $55.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.60% (HIGH) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $599
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.10% (LOW) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.50% (HIGH) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $313
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

12d 8h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

31¢

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Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will the 10-year treasury hit __ in April?

Markets (9)

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?

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Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will the 10-year treasury hit __ in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.20% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?

Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April?

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