$3.75K
1
15
$3.75K
1
15
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev. If Islam Makhachev remains #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the Pound-For-Pound rankings within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Islam/No Next #1 in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from th
Prediction markets currently assign a 45% probability that Islam Makhachev will remain the UFC's Pound-For-Pound #1 through the end of 2026. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the market views his continued dominance as slightly less likely than not, reflecting significant uncertainty over a nearly two-year timeframe. The opposing "Yes" shares for a new #1 fighter are collectively valued at 55%, showing a marginal lean toward a changing of the guard. With only $4,000 in total market volume, liquidity is thin, suggesting these odds are preliminary and highly sensitive to new information.
Two primary factors are shaping the current pricing. First, Islam Makhachev's established dominance is a key pillar. As the reigning lightweight champion and current P4P king, he possesses a formidable skill set and a lack of clear, immediate challengers in his own division who are seen as definitive favorites to dethrone him. His fighting style, built on elite grappling control, has proven difficult for opponents to solve.
Second, the market is pricing in the inevitable risk of upset and the rise of other champions. The 55% collective probability for a new #1 captures the volatility of MMA over a multi-year period. Fighters like Leon Edwards, Alex Pereira, and Tom Aspinall hold championship gold and could build compelling cases for the top spot with a few more high-profile victories. A single loss for Makhachev, whether at lightweight or in a potential superfight, could immediately topple him from the P4P throne.
The odds will be most directly moved by the outcomes of major UFC events featuring the top contenders. Makhachev's own fight schedule is the largest catalyst. A dominant title defense, especially against a highly-ranked challenger like Arman Tsarukyan, would likely cause his 45% probability to rise. Conversely, a loss would immediately collapse that price and shift value to other contenders.
For other fighters to gain value, they need to build undeniable resumes. A scenario where Alex Pereira successfully defends his light heavyweight title and then captures the heavyweight belt, for example, would create an unprecedented champion and almost certainly propel him to the #1 P4P ranking. Similarly, if a fighter like Shavkat Rakhmonov were to capture and defend a welterweight title with a string of finishes, he could rapidly enter the conversation. The market will react sharply to any official UFC rankings updates that show movement in the top P4P spots, making each quarterly update a potential volatility event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying the next UFC fighter to achieve the number one position in the organization's official Pound-For-Pound (P4P) rankings, following the current champion, Islam Makhachev. The UFC's P4P list is a subjective ranking system that attempts to compare fighters across all weight classes, assessing their skills, accomplishments, and dominance relative to their peers, regardless of size. It is considered the ultimate individual accolade in mixed martial arts, signifying who is perceived as the best fighter in the world. The market has a defined resolution period, expiring at the end of 2026, and includes a specific outcome if Makhachev retains the top spot or if no new number one is crowned within that timeframe. The primary resolution source is the official UFC rankings, which are updated weekly and published on UFC.com, following significant fight events. Interest in this market stems from the volatile nature of MMA, where a single loss can dramatically alter a fighter's standing, and from the emergence of several dominant champions who are potential successors to Makhachev's throne. The question taps into core fan debates about legacy, cross-divisional dominance, and the future trajectory of the sport's biggest stars.
The UFC's official Pound-For-Pound rankings were introduced in 2013, providing a formalized structure for a long-standing fan and media debate. The list has been dominated by a small group of exceptional fighters who transcended their divisions. Jon Jones was the inaugural number one and held the spot for years, interrupted only briefly by Demetrious Johnson. The era of 'The Three Kings' from 2015 to 2021 featured Jones, Demetrious Johnson, and Conor McGregor frequently jockeying for position. A significant shift occurred with the rise of Khabib Nurmagomedov, who retired undefeated and as P4P #1 in 2020. His teammate, Islam Makhachev, eventually claimed the mantle in 2023 after dethroning the long-reigning featherweight king, Alexander Volkanovski, who had held the top spot for over two years. Historically, claiming the P4P crown has required either long-term dominance in a single weight class (like Volkanovski's featherweight reign) or the rare achievement of becoming a simultaneous two-division champion, as Conor McGregor did in 2016. The volatility of the spot is notable, with only eight different fighters holding the #1 position in the ranking's first decade.
The pursuit of the Pound-For-Pound #1 ranking is a central narrative in combat sports, driving fan engagement, media coverage, and fighter legacies. It matters because it transcends individual weight classes to crown a single global face of the UFC, which has direct economic implications. The fighter perceived as the 'best in the world' commands higher pay-per-view buys, more lucrative sponsorship deals, and greater leverage in contract negotiations. For the UFC as an organization, having a dominant, recognizable P4P king is vital for mainstream marketing and crossover appeal. On a sporting level, it elevates specific fights to superfight status, creating events that define eras. The question of who succeeds Makhachev will shape the promotional focus of the UFC for years, influencing which divisions and fighters receive the biggest pushes. For fans and historians, the P4P list is a key metric for comparing fighters across generations, making the identity of the number one fighter a lasting part of the sport's historical record.
As of late 2024, Islam Makhachev firmly holds the UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 ranking following his decisive fifth-round submission victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 in June 2024. The landscape beneath him is highly competitive. Alex Pereira, after a first-round knockout of Jiri Prochazka to defend his light heavyweight title, is widely ranked at P4P #2. Ilia Topuria, having knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, sits near the top of the list as a charismatic new champion. Tom Aspinall awaits a unification bout with heavyweight champion Jon Jones, which could dramatically reshuffle the rankings. The next major events for these contenders will be critical in determining the momentum toward the top spot.
The rankings are determined by a voting panel of approximately 30 members of the mixed martial arts media. Each voter submits their own weekly top-15 list for each weight class and the pound-for-pound list. The UFC then compiles these submissions to create the official rankings, which are updated after every event.
Yes, Jon Jones was the Pound-For-Pound #1 for extended periods while competing as a light heavyweight. However, no fighter has held the top P4P spot while reigning as the UFC heavyweight champion. Current interim champion Tom Aspinall could be the first to achieve this if he unifies the title and dominates.
A loss, even in a non-title bout, typically results in a fighter dropping significantly in the Pound-For-Pound rankings. The list is based on perceived skill and accomplishment, so a defeat damages that perception. For example, when Jon Jones lost a disqualification early in his career, he fell from the P4P list entirely until rebuilding his resume.
It is extremely rare but theoretically possible. The rankings are meant to reflect who is the best fighter, not just who holds a title. In practice, however, the #1 spot has almost exclusively been held by a reigning champion, as holding a belt is the clearest indicator of divisional dominance.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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15 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 45% |
| Poly | 32% |
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| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 5% |
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| Poly | 3% |
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