How many Tornadoes in the US in March? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

Name: How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
End: 2026-04-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$222.14K

Events

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How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

Vol

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Polymarket

markets · $222.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $222.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	Poly	100%
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$222.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornado"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $222.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $134.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.66)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $30.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $26.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $48.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $48.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 10, 2026): Vol $69.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

20¢

Polymarket

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How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

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Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?

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About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)