This prediction market topic examines whether the rate of layoffs in the information sector will exceed 1.7% in December 2025. The information sector, as defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes establishments engaged in producing and distributing information and cultural products, providing the means to transmit or distribute these products, and processing data. This encompasses technology companies, telecommunications, publishing, broadcasting, and data processing services. The 1.7% threshold represents a significant monthly layoff rate for this sector, which typically experiences lower churn than more cyclical industries. The topic is being tracked because December 2025 represents a critical juncture for the technology industry, which has undergone substantial workforce adjustments since the post-pandemic period of 2022-2024. Investors, policymakers, and industry analysts are monitoring these labor market dynamics as indicators of broader economic health, corporate strategy shifts in response to artificial intelligence adoption, and the sustainability of previous hiring surges. The resolution depends on official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), specifically the layoffs and discharges rate for NAICS code 51.

Historical Context

The information sector's employment volatility has increased significantly since the pandemic. In 2020-2021, the sector experienced unprecedented hiring, with technology companies adding approximately 900,000 jobs in the United States alone, representing 17% growth over two years. This hiring surge created what economists now describe as 'over-hiring' relative to sustainable demand. The correction began in late 2022, when major technology companies announced the first wave of significant layoffs. November 2022 saw Twitter reduce its workforce by approximately 50% following Elon Musk's acquisition, while Meta announced 11,000 layoffs that same month. The trend accelerated in 2023, with technology companies announcing 262,682 layoffs globally according to Layoffs.fyi, nearly matching the 164,969 layoffs announced in all of 2022. The information sector's layoff rate peaked at 1.9% in January 2023 according to BLS JOLTS data, before moderating to around 1.0-1.2% through most of 2024. Historically, December typically shows lower layoff rates due to holiday moratoriums and annual bonus considerations, making a 1.7% threshold particularly significant. The last time the information sector experienced sustained layoff rates above 1.7% was during the dot-com bust of 2000-2002, when the sector lost approximately 20% of its workforce over three years.

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