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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Tech layoffs up in Dec 2025? | Kalshi | 40% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In Dec 2025 If the rate of layoffs in the information sector in December 2025 is greater than 1.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic examines whether the rate of layoffs in the information sector will exceed 1.7% in December 2025. The information sector, as defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes establishments engaged in producing and distributing information and cultural products, providing the means to transmit or distribute these products, and processing data. This encompasses technology companies, telecommunications, publishing, broadcasting, and data processing services. The 1.7% threshold represents a significant monthly layoff rate for this sector, which typically experiences lower churn than more cyclical industries. The topic is being tracked because December 2025 represents a critical juncture for the technology industry, which has undergone substantial workforce adjustments since the post-pandemic period of 2022-2024. Investors, policymakers, and industry analysts are monitoring these labor market dynamics as indicators of broader economic health, corporate strategy shifts in response to artificial intelligence adoption, and the sustainability of previous hiring surges. The resolution depends on official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), specifically the layoffs and discharges rate for NAICS code 51.
The information sector's employment volatility has increased significantly since the pandemic. In 2020-2021, the sector experienced unprecedented hiring, with technology companies adding approximately 900,000 jobs in the United States alone, representing 17% growth over two years. This hiring surge created what economists now describe as 'over-hiring' relative to sustainable demand. The correction began in late 2022, when major technology companies announced the first wave of significant layoffs. November 2022 saw Twitter reduce its workforce by approximately 50% following Elon Musk's acquisition, while Meta announced 11,000 layoffs that same month. The trend accelerated in 2023, with technology companies announcing 262,682 layoffs globally according to Layoffs.fyi, nearly matching the 164,969 layoffs announced in all of 2022. The information sector's layoff rate peaked at 1.9% in January 2023 according to BLS JOLTS data, before moderating to around 1.0-1.2% through most of 2024. Historically, December typically shows lower layoff rates due to holiday moratoriums and annual bonus considerations, making a 1.7% threshold particularly significant. The last time the information sector experienced sustained layoff rates above 1.7% was during the dot-com bust of 2000-2002, when the sector lost approximately 20% of its workforce over three years.
Information sector layoff rates serve as a leading indicator for broader economic trends, given the sector's disproportionate contribution to productivity growth, innovation, and stock market valuations. When technology companies reduce headcount, it often signals concerns about future revenue growth, changing business models, or responses to increased automation through artificial intelligence. These layoffs have cascading effects on local economies, particularly in technology hubs like Silicon Valley, Seattle, Austin, and Boston, where high-wage technology jobs support extensive service industries. The psychological impact of technology layoffs also affects consumer confidence and spending patterns beyond the directly affected workers. For policymakers, sustained high layoff rates in the information sector could indicate structural economic shifts requiring workforce retraining initiatives and potential adjustments to immigration policies for specialized technical workers. Investors monitor these trends to assess whether companies are managing costs effectively during economic uncertainty or sacrificing growth opportunities through excessive workforce reductions.
As of late 2024, the information sector layoff rate has moderated from its 2023 peaks but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 1.2% layoff rate for the information sector in the most recent JOLTS data, with technology companies continuing selective restructuring around artificial intelligence initiatives. Several major firms have announced hiring freezes or modest workforce reductions in specific divisions, while maintaining aggressive hiring in AI-related roles. Economic forecasts for 2025 remain mixed, with some analysts predicting continued moderation in layoffs as companies complete post-pandemic adjustments, while others warn of potential renewed cuts if economic growth slows or interest rates remain elevated. The upcoming fourth-quarter 2024 earnings season in January 2025 will provide crucial guidance about corporate expectations for the following year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the information sector (NAICS 51) to include software publishers, data processing services, telecommunications, broadcasting, motion picture production, and information services. This encompasses major technology firms like Google and Microsoft, telecom companies like Verizon, and media companies like Disney.
The BLS layoff rate represents the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. They collect this data through the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) of approximately 21,000 nonfarm business and government establishments. The rate is seasonally adjusted to account for regular patterns like holiday hiring.
December historically has the lowest layoff rates in the information sector due to holiday moratoriums, companies avoiding negative publicity during the holiday season, and employees typically receiving annual bonuses or stock vesting that companies don't want to pay to departing workers. A 1.7% rate would be highly unusual for this month.
The information sector typically has lower layoff rates than more cyclical industries like construction or retail. For comparison, the accommodation and food services industry often experiences layoff rates above 4%, while manufacturing averages around 1.5%. The information sector's 1.7% threshold represents significant stress for this particular industry.
A combination of factors could drive such high layoffs, including a significant economic downturn, rapid AI implementation displacing workers faster than new roles are created, sustained high interest rates reducing investment, or multiple major technology companies simultaneously announcing large restructuring programs in late 2025.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically releases JOLTS data, including layoff rates by industry, approximately 30 days after the reference month. Therefore, the official December 2025 information sector layoff rate will likely be published in late January or early February 2026, depending on the BLS release schedule.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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