What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on Polymarket currently give about a 1 in 5 chance that the Dutch House of Representatives will be dissolved in 2026. This means the collective view is that it is unlikely the current governing coalition will collapse, triggering an early election, before the end of that year. The market suggests a high degree of confidence that the government will complete its normal term, which is scheduled to end in March 2027.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability is based on a few factors. First, the current Dutch coalition government, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte's successor Dick Schoof, was formed after a record-long negotiation period. This suggests the parties have a strong incentive to make the coalition work after such a difficult formation process. Second, the four-party coalition holds a majority in parliament. While it includes parties with differing views, from the center-right VVD to the center-left PvdA/GL, the simple fact of a majority makes a collapse less likely. Historically, Dutch governments often serve most of their full terms, with early dissolutions being the exception rather than the rule.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event to watch is the annual government budget presentation, known as Prinsjesdag, in September 2025. This is a traditional stress test for coalitions, as it forces compromises on spending. Internal policy disputes, particularly on difficult issues like migration or climate policy, could also strain the alliance. If a major coalition partner were to publicly withdraw its support, that would be a clear signal the government is in trouble. Otherwise, the political calendar is relatively quiet, which supports stability.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a mixed record on niche political questions like this. They are generally better at forecasting high-profile elections than the precise timing of parliamentary collapses. For this specific market, the low trading volume is a limitation. With only a few thousand dollars wagered, the price may not fully reflect all available information and could be more easily swayed by a few traders. While the market's current low probability seems reasonable given the political context, it should be viewed as a speculative indicator rather than a firm forecast.