Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T00:00:05.995Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a five-minute window, labeled in its title as "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET" [1]. Per the rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different exchange, index, or spot feed could use different wording and resolve differently, so comparisons should start from the resolution source rather than the market name.
The saved record lists an end time of 2026-11-01T12:10:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time, not a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-11-01T00:00:05.995Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-01T01:15:27.773Z [1]. These are two different times, and neither is a live quote. The record shows the "Up" outcome at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The saved status is "active" [1]. Because the saved data was retrieved before the listed end time, the record does not show how the contract resolved.
The sample covers one market from one event on one platform. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is included, there is no basis for comparing this price against other contracts or other platforms. The volume figure is not in the supplied evidence, so no statement about liquidity or participation is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and it does not show recent market activity or trader views. It also contains no actual Chainlink TWAP values for the window and no resolution outcome. The source excerpt does not establish whether any other contract covers the same window.
A small gap between two prices should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without checking the contract wording, resolution source, close time, and executable prices, none of which are in this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T00:00:05.995Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto price contract from Polymarket, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET." It asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. The provider's rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The outcomes are therefore a comparison between two measured values, not a forecast reported by any outside party. The measurement comes from Chainlink. The stated resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second configuration [1]. The provider states that only this Chainlink price feed governs the outcome, and that other sources or spot markets do not [1]. A contract can therefore resolve differently from what a reader sees on a particular exchange, because the rule names one data feed. The provider's record lists the market's end time as 12:10 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. That listed end time is the close of the contract, which is separate from the time the market was observed or the time the source was retrieved. The source record was observed at 09:00 UTC and retrieved at 10:09 UTC [1]. Those timestamps describe when the record was captured. They do not show how the window ultimately settled, and the excerpt does not contain a settlement result. The contract's price is a market-implied snapshot taken at the observation time, not an executable quote or a verified probability. Trading activity in a short-window market can change quickly, and a single snapshot does not reflect the price a trader would receive at another time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price as recorded by one specific data feed over one short window. Under the rules, the question is whether the TWAP across the window is at or above the price at the start of the window [1]. Because a TWAP averages prices across the period rather than using a single trade, the outcome depends on the average over the window and not only on the final moment. The contract is useful for reading how traders priced the direction of a five-minute move at a given time, but its outcome is defined entirely by the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The stated resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second configuration. The provider says other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
What does the TWAP mean in this contract?
TWAP stands for time-weighted average price. The rules compare this average over the window in the title with the price at the start of that window [1].
When does the contract end?
The provider's record lists the end time as 2026-11-01T12:10:00Z [1]. That is the listed close of the contract, not evidence of a settled outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.