Name: Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - U.K.
End: 2026-03-19T00:00:00.000Z

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Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - U.K. | PredictPedia

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6 markets tracked

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?	Poly	45%
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?	Poly	43%
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?	Poly	34%
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?	Poly	27%
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?	Poly	27%
Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.1%?	Poly	26%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - U.K.
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 19, 2026 (18 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases

The ne

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

17d 2h remaining

Mar 19, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

33¢

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Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

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Events (1)

Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - U.K.

Markets (6)

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?

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Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

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Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - U.K.

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.3%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be 5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥5.5%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s November 2025–January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤5.0%?

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