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The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivi
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Xavier Iturralde winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election, with his contract trading at just 28% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market views his candidacy as a clear underdog, implying a roughly 1-in-4 chance of victory. With only $1,000 in total volume spread thinly across 12 candidate-specific markets, liquidity is minimal, suggesting this is an early, speculative assessment rather than a mature consensus.
The primary factor suppressing Iturralde's odds is the formidable electoral machinery of the incumbent Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which holds national power and dominates Bolivian politics. As the candidate for the opposition Juntos party, Iturralde faces a significant structural disadvantage in a city that has historically been an MAS stronghold in major elections. Secondly, the extreme lack of market liquidity and volume indicates a near-total absence of major capital or informed betting on this specific race, causing prices to reflect baseline assumptions rather than nuanced analysis. The market is essentially pricing in the default advantage of the MAS candidate, Iván Arias, whose contract is likely trading at a significantly higher probability.
The odds could shift dramatically with the official start of the campaign period and the release of credible polling data, which is currently absent. A key catalyst will be the finalization of all candidate lists and alliances, as a fractured opposition field could consolidate behind a single challenger, potentially improving Iturralde's standing. Conversely, any major political scandal or economic shock affecting the national MAS government before the March 22, 2026 election could weaken the incumbent's advantage and boost opposition prospects. Given the thin liquidity, even a small amount of informed capital entering the market could cause large price swings in the coming weeks.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The La Paz mayoral election scheduled for March 22, 2026, is a pivotal political contest to determine the executive leader of Bolivia's administrative capital and second-largest city. This election will select the mayor who will govern La Paz for a five-year term, overseeing a municipality of approximately 800,000 residents and managing a significant budget for urban infrastructure, public services, and local development. The race occurs within Bolivia's complex political landscape, where municipal elections often serve as crucial barometers for national political strength, particularly for the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party and various opposition coalitions. The outcome will influence the distribution of power at the local level and signal political trends ahead of the next national presidential election. Interest in this market stems from its role as a key indicator of urban political sentiment in Bolivia, the economic importance of La Paz as a governmental hub, and the competitive nature of recent municipal races in the city, which have not been dominated by a single party.
The political history of La Paz's mayoralty reflects broader national tensions. For decades, power alternated between traditional parties like the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR) and the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR). A significant shift occurred in 1985 with the election of Juan del Granado, a leftist independent, who served from 1985 to 1986 and again from 2000 to 2010, establishing a legacy of technocratic governance. The rise of Evo Morales and MAS transformed the landscape. MAS candidate Luis Revilla won the mayorship in 2010, marking the party's capture of the capital. Revilla served until 2021, but his later break with MAS highlighted internal party fractures. The 2021 election saw the victory of independent Iván Arias, ending 11 years of MAS control and demonstrating the volatility of the urban electorate. This historical pattern shows La Paz is not a guaranteed stronghold for any single party, with outcomes often hinging on local management records, national political winds, and the ability of opposition forces to unite. The 2026 election will test whether Arias's incumbency can solidify an independent trend or if MAS can recapture the seat.
The election matters significantly for the governance and development of Bolivia's seat of government. The Mayor of La Paz controls a substantial budget, estimated at over $500 million USD annually, for critical infrastructure, public transit, sanitation, and social programs in a densely populated city with topographical challenges. The winner's policies will directly impact the quality of life for nearly a million residents and the functioning of the national government apparatus located within the municipality. Politically, a MAS victory would reinforce the party's recovery in urban areas and strengthen President Arce's position. An opposition or independent win would fragment national power, embolden critics of the national government, and potentially create a policy blockade against federal initiatives in the capital. The result will also be analyzed as a precursor to the next presidential election, shaping strategies and alliances for the 2030 national contest.
As of late 2024, the electoral landscape is in a formative phase. Incumbent Mayor Iván Arias has not formally declared his candidacy for re-election but is widely expected to run. The ruling MAS party has not yet selected its standard-bearer, with internal discussions likely influenced by the dynamic between former President Evo Morales and President Luis Arce. Various opposition groups, including traditional parties and newer civic movements, are beginning informal negotiations to potentially unite behind a single candidate to challenge both Arias and MAS. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has confirmed the date of March 22, 2026, for coordinated municipal elections across Bolivia, initiating the official electoral calendar that will dictate candidate registration deadlines and campaign periods.
The current mayor is Iván Arias Durán, an independent politician elected in the 2021 municipal elections. He took office in May 2021 and his term is set to conclude in 2026, at which point he may seek re-election.
The mayor is elected by direct popular vote of citizens registered in the La Paz municipality. The candidate who receives the most votes wins a five-year term, with no runoff election required. This is known as a first-past-the-post system.
La Paz is the administrative capital and seat of government, housing the Presidential Palace and the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. Winning the mayorship provides a major platform, controls significant resources, and offers symbolic power as a counterweight to the national government.
The last election was held on March 7, 2021. Independent candidate Iván Arias defeated the incumbent MAS party candidate and several others, marking a significant shift in the city's politics.
Key issues typically include public transportation and traffic congestion, management of the Mi Teleférico cable car system, urban development and housing in steep terrain, water management, public safety, and municipal fiscal management.
The president and national government cannot directly intervene in the electoral process, which is run by the independent Supreme Electoral Tribunal. However, the national ruling party actively campaigns for its candidate, and federal policies can influence the local electoral mood.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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