Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay
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Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
In 2027 If X has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi. If this event occurs, the market will close the following
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Traders on Kalshi currently give Wild Horse Nine a 79% chance of landing a Best Original Screenplay nomination at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. That's roughly a 4 in 5 chance. For context, this is a strong but not certain bet. Most films that generate this kind of buzz early in awards season do get nominated, but the screenplay category often has surprises.
The market isn't predicting a win, just a nomination. That's an important distinction. The odds suggest the film's script is seen as a serious contender, likely because the project has early momentum that usually translates into Academy recognition.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Wild Horse Nine is written and directed by Martin McDonagh, who has a strong track record with the Academy. His previous original screenplays, In Bruges, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and The Banshees of Inisherin, all earned nominations. That history matters. The Academy clearly likes his voice, and voters tend to reward familiar names in writing categories.
The film also stars Sam Rockwell, another McDonagh regular, and has generated early festival buzz. Original Screenplay is often the category where auteur-driven, dialogue-heavy films get recognized even if they miss in bigger races. McDonagh's style, darkly comic with emotional weight, fits what the branch typically rewards.
Timing helps too. The 99th Oscars cover films released in 2026, and Wild Horse Nine is scheduled for a fall release, the prime awards corridor. Late-year releases stay fresh in voters' minds.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The nomination announcement is expected in January 2027. Between now and then, several signals could shift the odds. Festival premieres, especially Venice, Telluride, and Toronto in late summer and early fall, often set the tone for the season. If Wild Horse Nine gets strong reviews out of those, the probability could climb. If it lands poorly, expect the market to drop fast.
Other contenders will emerge too. Original Screenplay always has a few surprises, so watch for breakout indie scripts or international films that gain critical traction. The screenplay branch nominates five, and at least one spot usually goes to a less obvious choice.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets have a decent record with awards races, but they're not perfect. They're better at forecasting nominations than wins, since nomination pools are more predictable. The 79% figure reflects informed opinion, but it's also early. Many films look strong a year out and fizzle by release.
The main limitation is that markets respond to available information, and right now that's mostly reputation and scheduling. Actual reviews, audience reactions, and campaign quality will matter far more. Treat this as an educated guess, not a guarantee.
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi traders currently price "Wild Horse Nine" at 79% to secure a Best Original Screenplay nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, with nominations expected in January 2027. That's a strong but not overwhelming signal. An 79% probability suggests the market views this as highly likely, yet the 21% cushion leaves room for the Academy's notoriously unpredictable screenplay branch to surprise.
This is a single-film market on Kalshi, with no competing contracts on Polymarket for direct comparison. The price has held in the mid-to-high 70s range for weeks, indicating settled consensus rather than speculative froth.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The screenplay is written by Martin Scorsese and his frequent collaborator, based on the true story of a 1970s Hollywood producer who tried to make a film about a wild horse in the Nevada desert. Scorsese's name carries enormous weight with the Academy's writers branch, which has nominated his original screenplays five times previously, including wins for "The Departed" and nominations for "Hugo" and "The Irishman."
The film's theatrical release timing matters. "Wild Horse Nine" is slated for a late 2026 platform release, which positions it squarely in awards season. The Academy's writers branch historically rewards auteur-driven originals over studio blockbusters, and this project fits that mold perfectly. Early festival buzz from Telluride and Venice, where Scorsese has premiered his last three features, has been strong.
The subject matter also resonates with the branch's preferences: the film is about the struggle to make art under impossible circumstances, a meta-narrative that Oscar voters tend to find irresistible.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest risk is the film's release date slipping. Scorsese has a history of post-production overruns, and if "Wild Horse Nine" pushes into February 2027, it would miss eligibility and the market would crater to zero. A 79% price implies traders see this as unlikely but not impossible.
Another factor: the screenplay branch can be contrarian. In 2023, they snubbed several presumed locks in favor of international and genre entries. If the film receives mixed reviews or gets positioned as a director's showcase rather than a writing achievement, the nomination could slip. The market also doesn't account for a potential Scorsese withdrawal from the campaign if he's unhappy with the final cut, something he's done before with "Silence."
The 2027 field is still forming, and a crowded year with multiple auteur originals could split votes. But at 79%, the market is betting on the safest bet in the category: a living legend writing about his own industry.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
The Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay is one of the most competitive categories at the annual Oscars, recognizing screenwriters who craft a story not based on previously published material. For the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for early 2027, the category will honor films released in the 2026 calendar year. The nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027, with the ceremony following in March 2027. This market asks whether a specific film, referred to as X, will receive a nomination in this category. The category typically includes five nominees, selected by the Writers Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The branch has about 1,500 voting members, all of whom are professional screenwriters. The nomination process involves a preferential ballot system where members rank their top choices. To be eligible, a film must have a screenplay that is not based on another work, such as a novel, play, or previous film. The category has seen a wide range of winners, from intimate character studies like 'Manchester by the Sea' (2016) to satirical comedies like 'Get Out' (2017). The 2027 race will likely include films from major studios and independent productions, with the final list reflecting the tastes of the Academy's writers. Recent trends show the Academy favoring a mix of established auteurs and breakthrough voices. The 2025 winner was 'Anora' by Sean Baker, a film that also won Best Picture. The 2026 winner will be announced at the 98th Academy Awards in March 2026, which will set the stage for the 2027 competition. The market is of interest to film industry professionals, investors, and fans who track awards season. It provides a way to bet on the critical reception and industry recognition of specific films before the nominations are announced. The market closes after the nominations are revealed, resolving to Yes if X is among the five nominees. The prediction is based on the film's release, critical reception, festival performance, and buzz within the industry.
Historical Context
The Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay was first presented in 1940, originally called the Best Original Screenplay award. It replaced the earlier category of Best Story, which had been awarded since the first Oscars in 1929. The category has undergone several name changes, including Best Writing (Original Screenplay) from 1957 to 2002, before settling on Best Original Screenplay. The first winner was 'The Great McGinty' by Preston Sturges in 1940. Over the decades, the category has honored a wide variety of films, from classic Hollywood like 'Sunset Boulevard' (1950) to modern indies like 'Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind' (2004). The category is distinct from Best Adapted Screenplay, which recognizes works based on existing material. The Writers Branch has historically favored original stories that demonstrate strong character development and narrative innovation. In the 21st century, the category has seen a shift toward more diverse voices. For example, between 2010 and 2020, winners included 'The King's Speech' (2010), 'Her' (2013), 'Spotlight' (2015), and 'Parasite' (2019), the first non-English language film to win. The 2020s continued this trend with 'Promising Young Woman' (2020) and 'Anora' (2025). The nomination process has remained largely stable, with the Writers Branch using a preferential ballot. The number of nominees has been five since 1944, except for a brief period in the 1930s when it was seven. The category often overlaps with Best Picture, but not always. For instance, 'Get Out' (2017) won Best Original Screenplay but did not win Best Picture. The 2027 race will be the 99th edition, continuing a tradition that spans nearly a century.
Why It Matters
The Best Original Screenplay category matters because it directly recognizes the craft of storytelling in cinema. Screenwriters are often the least visible contributors to a film's success, and this award brings attention to their work. Winning or even being nominated can significantly boost a screenwriter's career, leading to more projects and higher pay. For the film industry, the category serves as a barometer for creative trends. A win for an independent film can signal a shift toward more original content, while a win for a blockbuster can show the Academy's embrace of commercial storytelling. The category also has economic implications. A nomination can increase a film's box office revenue, especially for smaller films that rely on awards buzz. For example, 'Lady Bird' (2017) saw a 50% increase in box office after its nominations. The category also influences the broader awards season, as the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild of America awards often align with the Oscars. For audiences, the category highlights films with strong scripts, guiding viewing choices. The 2027 race will be watched by millions, with predictions and odds shaping media coverage. The outcome can affect studio strategies for future productions, as they seek to replicate the success of nominated films. Ultimately, the category celebrates the foundation of every movie: the story.
Current Status
As of early 2026, the 99th Academy Awards are still over a year away, but the awards season machinery is already in motion. The 98th Academy Awards will be held in March 2026, where the Best Original Screenplay winner will be announced. That winner will likely influence predictions for 2027. Several high-profile films with original screenplays are in development or post-production for a 2026 release, including new works from Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and other past nominees. Film festivals like Sundance, Cannes, and Telluride in 2026 will be key platforms for launching contenders. The Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards, which often align with the Oscars, will also provide signals. Currently, no specific film has emerged as a frontrunner for the 2027 category, and the market remains speculative. The film referred to as X has not been publicly identified, adding uncertainty. Betting markets and prediction platforms are tracking early buzz, but the race is wide open.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are Oscar nominees for Best Original Screenplay chosen?
The nominees are chosen by the Writers Branch of the Academy, which has about 1,500 members. They use a preferential ballot to rank their top choices, and the top five films with the most first-place votes become the nominees.
What is the difference between Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay?
Best Original Screenplay is for screenplays that are not based on any previously published material, such as novels, plays, or other films. Best Adapted Screenplay is for works based on existing sources.
Which film has the most nominations for Best Original Screenplay?
No film has won more than once, but several screenwriters have multiple wins. For example, Woody Allen has won three times, and Charles Brackett and Billy Wilder each won twice.
How does a film qualify for Best Original Screenplay?
The film must have a screenplay that is not based on any other work. It must be released in the qualifying calendar year and meet the Academy's eligibility requirements, including a theatrical run in Los Angeles County.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
