GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

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Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

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14 markets tracked

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)	Kalshi	77%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)	Kalshi	75%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)	Kalshi	74%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)	Kalshi	71%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)	Kalshi	44%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (All of a Sudden)	Kalshi	38%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Dune: Part Three)	Kalshi	32%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Adventures of Cliff Booth)	Kalshi	32%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Wildwood)	Kalshi	18%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Toy Story 5)	Kalshi	14%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Cry to Heaven)	Kalshi	13%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Whisper Man)	Kalshi	8%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Clarissa)	Kalshi	8%
2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Saturn Return)	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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77%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2027 If X has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 1

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 1

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If The Invite has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any refer"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Cry to Heaven)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Adventures of Cliff Booth)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Whisper Man)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (All of a Sudden)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Toy Story 5)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Wildwood)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Saturn Return)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Dune: Part Three)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Clarissa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

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KALSHI

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

If The Odyssey has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any refe

KALSHI

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

If The Black Ball has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any r

KALSHI

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

If The Invite has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any refer

KALSHI

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHITech

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

If Project Hail Mary has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. An

KALSHI

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

If The Social Reckoning has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars.

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Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

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2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

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Events (1)

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

Markets (14)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

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2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

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Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Odyssey)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Black Ball)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Invite)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Project Hail Mary)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Social Reckoning)

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