Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$20.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Vol

$20.03K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $20.03K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.03K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	52%
Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will average gas prices go below $4.10 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will average gas prices go below $4.05 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will average gas prices go below $3.95 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will average gas prices go below $3.90 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will average gas prices go below $3.85 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will average gas prices go below $3.80 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will average gas prices go below $3.75 by Oct 31, 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$20.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In Oct 2026 If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than X at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 





In Oct 2026

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than X at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.35 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average gas prices go below $4.10 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average gas prices go below $4.05 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will average gas prices go below $3.95 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $791
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will average gas prices go below $3.90 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will average gas prices go below $3.85 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $686
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will average gas prices go below $3.80 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will average gas prices go below $3.75 by Oct 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Volume$20.03K

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.35 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E

KALSHI

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.30 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E

KALSHI

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.25 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E

KALSHI

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.15 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E

KALSHI

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $4.20 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm E

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24¢

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How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

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Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Markets (13)

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

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Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.35 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.30 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.25 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.15 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices go below $4.20 by Oct 31, 2026?

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