Name: Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Measles cases in U.S. by April 30? | PredictPedia

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Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Poly	40%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Poly	10%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

T"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

31d 11h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

25¢

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Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Markets (2)

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

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Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

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Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

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