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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the
Prediction markets currently assign a 79% probability to a Republican victory in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. This price, translating to roughly a 4 in 5 chance, indicates the market views a GOP win as the strong consensus favorite. The leading contract, "Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?", is trading at 79 cents on Polymarket. It is important to note that trading volume is relatively thin at approximately $3,000, which can make prices more sensitive to individual bets.
The primary factor is the unique political landscape in Vermont. While the state votes heavily Democratic in federal elections, it has a modern history of electing moderate Republican governors, a phenomenon known as the "Vermont Republican Governor tradition." The current governor, Phil Scott, a popular Republican, is term-limited in 2026. The market is likely pricing in the expectation that a moderate Republican candidate will successfully continue this legacy, appealing to the state's independent streak. Furthermore, the national Democratic Party's progressive positioning may be seen as misaligned with Vermont's more pragmatic, rural electorate in a state-level executive race, creating an opening for a centrist Republican.
The odds could shift significantly once candidate fields are established. A strong, well-known Democratic recruit who can unite the party and appeal to independents could narrow the gap. Conversely, if the GOP nominates a candidate perceived as too conservative or divisive, it could break from the successful moderate model and depress their chances. Key dates to watch will be candidate filing deadlines and primary elections in 2026, which will provide concrete signals. The current thin market liquidity also means odds are more likely to experience volatility as new information or larger traders enter the market closer to the election.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Vermont Governor Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining who will win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. This political contest will decide who succeeds Governor Phil Scott, who is term-limited and cannot run for re-election in 2026, marking the first open gubernatorial race in Vermont since 2016. The market resolves based on the certified election results, with candidates representing their party's official nomination. While initial options typically include the Democratic and Republican nominees, the market may later incorporate candidates from other parties like the Vermont Progressive Party, Libertarians, or independents, reflecting Vermont's unique political landscape where third-party candidates have historically garnered significant support. Interest in this market stems from Vermont's status as a politically competitive state with a strong independent streak, despite its recent Democratic lean in federal elections. The 2026 race represents a pivotal moment for both major parties as they seek to control the governorship for the first time in over a decade, with potential implications for state policies on climate change, housing, education funding, and economic development. Political observers are closely watching because Vermont is one of the few states where a Republican has maintained executive power in an otherwise blue state, making the 2026 election a critical test of whether this trend can continue without the popular incumbent.
Vermont's gubernatorial elections have displayed a unique political dynamic for decades, characterized by independent voters and successful third-party movements. The Vermont Progressive Party, founded in 1999, has elected numerous local and state officials, making it one of the most successful third parties in the United States. This history influences every statewide race, as candidates often must appeal beyond traditional party bases. The Republican Party has held the governorship for all but six years since 1996, primarily through moderate candidates like Howard Dean (1991-2003), Jim Douglas (2003-2011), and Phil Scott (2017-present). This streak is notable given Vermont's strong Democratic performance in presidential elections, where it has voted for the Democratic nominee in every election since 1992. The last open gubernatorial election occurred in 2016 when Phil Scott first won the office following the retirement of Democrat Peter Shumlin. Scott's subsequent re-elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022, often by comfortable margins despite a Democratic legislature, underscore the state's preference for divided government and fiscal moderation at the executive level. This historical pattern sets the stage for 2026, where Democrats will aim to break the Republican hold on the office, while Republicans will attempt to prove their success was not solely tied to Scott's personal popularity.
The outcome of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election will significantly influence state policy direction for the remainder of the decade. A Democratic victory could align the executive branch with the Democratic-controlled legislature, potentially accelerating progressive legislation on climate goals, such as Vermont's Global Warming Solutions Act mandates, and expanding social programs. A Republican win would likely continue a divided government, emphasizing budget constraints and moderating the pace of legislative change. The election also matters for national politics as a case study in whether moderate Republicanism can survive in New England without a specific incumbent. Furthermore, the governor appoints judges, including to the Vermont Supreme Court, and oversees the implementation of major investments like federal infrastructure funds, directly affecting economic development, broadband expansion, and housing initiatives. For Vermont residents, the winner will shape the state's response to pressing issues like the affordability crisis, an aging population, and rural community vitality.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages, with no official candidates having declared their intention to run. Potential candidates from both parties are likely engaged in private deliberations, fundraising assessments, and coalition-building ahead of expected announcements in 2025. The political landscape is shaped by Governor Phil Scott's ongoing tenure, with observers analyzing his policy decisions and approval ratings for clues about the electorate's mood. The Vermont Democratic Party is conducting internal discussions about potential standard-bearers, while the Vermont Republican Party is considering how to maintain its hold on the office without Scott. Key issues like housing affordability, climate resilience after the 2023 floods, and the state's budget are dominating current political discourse, providing a framework for the future campaign.
The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the national midterm elections, where Vermont will also elect its single U.S. Representative and various state legislative offices.
To run for governor of Vermont, a candidate must be at least 18 years old, a resident of the state for at least four years on Election Day, and a registered voter. There are no term limits for the office, but the current governor, Phil Scott, is term-limited by his own pledge to serve no more than four terms.
Major issues include addressing the acute housing shortage and affordability crisis, managing the state's response to climate change and recovery from severe flooding, sustaining rural healthcare and education systems, and balancing the state budget without increasing the tax burden on residents.
Yes, Vermont has elected independent governors. Most notably, Thomas P. Salmon served as governor from 1973 to 1977, having been elected first as a Democrat in 1972 but later switching his affiliation to independent during his term. This historical precedent is relevant given Vermont's strong independent voter bloc.
Vermont has an open primary system, meaning registered voters may choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary on election day, regardless of their party affiliation. However, voters registered with a specific party must vote in that party's primary. This system can influence which candidates emerge as nominees.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 79% |
 | Poly | 19% |
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