The 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election will determine the composition of the National Assembly (Országgyűlés) for the next four-year term. Scheduled for early April 2026, this election is a critical political event that will decide whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz-KDNP coalition can extend their uninterrupted rule, which began in 2010, or if a united opposition can mount a successful challenge. The election follows the 2022 contest where Fidesz secured another supermajority, winning 135 of 199 seats, but takes place in a potentially altered political landscape shaped by economic pressures, European Union relations, and domestic policy debates. This prediction market specifically resolves based on which political party or coalition wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 election, with a resolution deadline of October 31, 2026. Interest in this market stems from Hungary's pivotal role in European politics, its status as a member of both NATO and the EU, and the broader significance of Orbán's brand of national conservatism, often termed 'illiberal democracy,' which has influenced political movements across the continent. The outcome will signal the direction of Hungary's foreign policy, its approach to rule of law and media freedom, and its economic trajectory.

Historical Context

Hungary's modern political landscape has been defined by Fidesz's rise to power. After losing the 2002 and 2006 elections, Fidesz, under Viktor Orbán, retook power in 2010 with a two-thirds supermajority. This victory enabled the party to enact a new constitution, the Fundamental Law of 2011, and pass cardinal laws that reshaped the judiciary, media, and electoral system. The 2014 and 2018 elections saw Fidesz retain its supermajority, solidifying its control. The 2022 election was a significant test, as a previously united opposition coalition, spanning from left-wing to far-right parties, challenged Fidesz. Despite this unprecedented unity, Fidesz won decisively, securing 135 seats (54.1% of the party list vote) to the opposition coalition's 57 seats. This continued a pattern where Fidesz's support base, concentrated in rural areas and small towns under the revised electoral map, consistently translates into parliamentary majorities. The historical precedent suggests that defeating Fidesz requires not just opposition unity but also overcoming structural advantages in the electoral system and Fidesz's dominance over much of the media landscape.

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