What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give an 83% chance that Seoul's high temperature on February 21 will reach 12°C. This means traders see it as very likely, roughly a 5 in 6 probability. The market is focused on the official reading from Incheon International Airport's weather station. With over $186,000 wagered, this is getting moderate attention from people using real money to signal their confidence in the forecast.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors are driving the high confidence in a mild day. First, the broader weather pattern shows a significant warming trend for the region in late February. South Korea often experiences cold snaps in winter, but models consistently predict a strong push of warmer air around this specific date.

Second, the market odds are likely aligning with professional meteorological forecasts. Traders often aggregate data from public weather services and model outputs. When these sources converge on a prediction, as they appear to have done for a high near 12°C, the market probability tends to spike. Historical data for Incheon also shows that while a 12°C day in late February is warm, it is not unprecedented, making the forecast plausible.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The key event is simply the day itself, February 21. The market will resolve shortly after midnight on February 22, once the official daily data is posted by sources like Wunderground. The main factor that could shift the prediction before then is a sudden change in the short-term weather models. If updated forecasts in the 24-48 hours before the 21st show a stronger cold front holding on, or the warm air arriving faster and pushing temperatures even higher, the market odds could change rapidly.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Markets on short-term weather events are typically quite reliable, often matching or exceeding the accuracy of standard forecasts. This is because they synthesize many sources of information, including crowd sentiment and expert analysis. However, the limitation is the same as for any weather forecast. Sudden, unpredictable changes in local conditions can still happen. The 83% probability is not a guarantee, but it shows a strong consensus that the meteorological evidence points clearly toward a warm winter day.