Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Total Volume

$6.46K

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120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Vol

$6.46K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.46K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.46K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)	Kalshi	44%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)	Kalshi	25%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)	Kalshi	10%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)	Kalshi	8%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)	Kalshi	4%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$6.46K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

In 2027 If X wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tom Cotton wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader.

This market is "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $815
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $439
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Volume$6.46K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

If Chuck Schumer wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

If John Thune wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market is

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

If Brian Schatz wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market i

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

If Chris Van Hollen wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This mark

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

If John Barrasso wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market

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15¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/T6EBnW" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?"></iframe>

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120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

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Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Markets (6)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

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Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

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