$1.51K
1
11
$1.51K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
The prediction market currently assigns a low probability of 34% to Alexander Volkanovski remaining the UFC Featherweight champion by December 31, 2026. This price suggests the consensus view is that Volkanovski will not hold the title at that future date, with the market implying a roughly two-thirds chance that a new champion will be crowned. The "Other" category, encompassing all other possible fighters, is effectively trading at an aggregated implied probability of 66%. Trading volume is thin at approximately $1,000, indicating low liquidity and that these odds may be more sensitive to individual bets.
Two primary factors are suppressing Volkanovski's odds. First, his age and recent form are significant concerns. By the end of 2026, Volkanovski will be 38 years old, an advanced age for the featherweight division. This is compounded by a current losing skid, including two decisive losses to Ilia Topuria, who now holds the title, and two knockout losses at lightweight. Second, the market is pricing in the volatility of the 145-pound division. Since 2020, the title has changed hands multiple times, and a new generation of contenders like Topuria, Movsar Evloev, and Aljamain Sterling (who is expected to move down) creates a deep and competitive field where extended reigns are seen as less likely.
The most immediate catalyst is the upcoming UFC 308 title fight in Abu Dhabi, where champion Ilia Topuria is expected to make his first defense. A decisive win by Topuria would likely further solidify the market's view of a new era and could push Volkanovski's odds lower. Conversely, a shocking loss by Topuria that immediately reopens the title picture could increase Volkanovski's path back to the belt, potentially improving his odds. Furthermore, a formal retirement announcement from Volkanovski would cause his contract to resolve to "No," shifting all probability to the "Other" pool. Key dates to watch are any official fight announcements for Topuria and Volkanovski's next scheduled bout.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining who will hold the UFC Featherweight championship on December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the official champion recognized by the Ultimate Fighting Championship at that specific date and time, excluding interim titleholders. If the belt is vacant, the market resolves to 'Other.' The Featherweight division, contested at 145 pounds, is historically one of the UFC's most competitive and talent-rich weight classes, known for producing some of the sport's most dominant champions and thrilling rivalries. Interest in this market stems from the division's current volatility and the emergence of a new generation of contenders challenging established stars. Bettors and analysts must weigh factors including champion Ilia Topuria's ability to maintain his title reign, the potential return of former champion Alexander Volkanovski, and the rise of dangerous challengers like Movsar Evloev and Brian Ortega. The extended timeframe to the end of 2026 introduces significant uncertainty, accounting for potential injuries, retirements, and unexpected career trajectories that could reshape the division's hierarchy.
The UFC Featherweight division has been defined by eras of dominant champions since its introduction in 2010. José Aldo was the inaugural UFC champion and defended the title seven times between 2011 and 2015, establishing one of the greatest reigns in MMA history. His reign ended at UFC 194 in December 2015 when he was knocked out in 13 seconds by Conor McGregor, who then vacated the belt to pursue titles in higher weight classes. This vacancy led to Max Holloway winning the interim and then undisputed title in 2017. Holloway defended the belt three times before losing to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 245 in December 2019. Volkanovski's nearly five-year reign included five successful defenses, tying Aldo's record for most consecutive title defenses in the division, before his shocking knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in 2024. This pattern of long reigns punctuated by dramatic changes underscores the division's competitive nature and the difficulty of predicting champions years in advance.
The identity of the UFC Featherweight champion carries significant commercial and sporting implications. Champions are central figures in pay-per-view events, with their drawing power directly impacting UFC revenue and fighter pay through bonuses and sponsorship value. A dominant champion like Volkanovski or Holloway can headline multiple major events, whereas frequent title changes can create more marketable 'storylines' but may reduce individual star power. For the athletes, holding the championship represents the pinnacle of achievement, guaranteeing the highest purses and greatest legacy within the sport. For fans and the MMA community, the champion shapes the narrative of the division, influencing which contenders get opportunities and defining the era's competitive landscape. The question of who holds the belt at the end of 2026 speaks to the long-term direction of one of MMA's premier weight classes.
As of mid-2024, Ilia Topuria is the reigning UFC Featherweight champion following his knockout victory over Alexander Volkanovski. His first title defense is officially booked against former champion Max Holloway for October 2024. The division's top five rankings feature volatile contenders, with Brian Ortega scheduled to fight Diego Lopes in June 2024 and Movsar Evloev awaiting a high-profile booking. Alexander Volkanovski has stated he will take time off but intends to continue fighting, keeping him in the title picture. The immediate future of the championship hinges on the outcome of Topuria vs. Holloway, which will either cement a new era or trigger an immediate rematch or new set of contenders.
As of mid-2024, the current UFC Featherweight champion is Ilia Topuria. He won the title by knocking out Alexander Volkanovski in the second round at UFC 298 on February 17, 2024.
According to the prediction market rules, if the UFC Featherweight championship belt is officially vacant at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to 'Other.' Only an officially recognized undisputed champion will trigger resolution to a specific fighter's name.
Historically, the UFC Featherweight title has seen periods of long dominance. Since 2010, there have been only five undisputed champions, with reigns lasting an average of over three years, though recent years have seen more volatility with two title changes since 2022.
No, interim champions are explicitly excluded. The market resolves only to the official, undisputed UFC Featherweight champion as listed by the UFC. If an interim champion is the only titleholder on the resolution date, the market would resolve to 'Other.'
The primary resolution source is the official UFC website, specifically the athlete rankings and titleholder information published at ufc.com/athletes. The market checks the champion listed there at the specified date and time.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 32% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 16% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 4% |
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