GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

France United Left Primary Winner

Name: France United Left Primary Winner
End: 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$212.58K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

France United Left Primary Winner

Vol

$212.58K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $212.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $212.58K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	Poly	93%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$212.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** France United Left Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 11, 2026 (36 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.

This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $212.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $110.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.93)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $43.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $31.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $49.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $76.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics