Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Total Volume

$642.85

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Markets

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Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Vol

$642.85

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $642.85

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $642.85

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?	Kalshi	77%
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?	Kalshi	73%
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?	Kalshi	66%
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?	Kalshi	44%
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?	Kalshi	20%
Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 50%?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$642.85

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tariff item 8703.80.00. The measured rate is the standard counter-tariff percentage applicable to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, excluding ordinary customs duties, sales taxes, and importer-spe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tariff item 8703.80.00. The measured rate is the standard counter-tariff percentage applicable to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, excluding ordinary customs duties, sales taxes, and importer-spe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 

50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tarif"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $643
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $158
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Volume$642.85

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tariff

KALSHI

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tarif

KALSHI

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tarif

KALSHI

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tarif

KALSHI

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tarif

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48¢

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Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

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Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

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Events (1)

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Markets (6)

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

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Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 0%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 10%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 20%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

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