Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Total Volume

$2.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Vol

$2.68K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.68K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.68K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?	Kalshi	51%
Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?	Kalshi	49%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$2.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mike Naig wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $591
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Volume$2.68K

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

If Mike Naig wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

If Chris Jones wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TCxGGN" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?"></iframe>

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Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

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Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Markets (2)

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

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Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner?

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Mike Naig win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

Will Chris Jones win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election?

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