SD-AL House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.4K
1
9
SD-AL House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.4K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 20-25% at 39.4%.
Polymarket
- Republican 20-25%39.4%
- Republican 15-20%20%
- Republican 25-30%15.5%
- Republican 30-35%13.1%
- Republican 35-40%9.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.4K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 SD-AL House election. The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Each bracket is a separate Yes or No contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a given range, and the Democratic Party contract asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election [1].
The rules include several details that affect how a contract resolves. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1]. The primary resolution source is the official certified result, and the rules also state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a fallback condition in the contract text, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:42:40.186Z [1]. These are snapshots of quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe that observation window only. The listed end time for all contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
All nine saved markets from this single Polymarket event are included, with no partial sample flag [1]. Among them, the 25% to 30% and 15% to 20% brackets are both quoted at 0.195 for Yes, while the 30% to 35% bracket is quoted at 0.198. The Democratic Party contract is quoted at 0.0015 for Yes. The 40% or more bracket is quoted at 0.0325 for Yes [1].
These figures come from one platform, so they should not be averaged with prices from any other source. The sample also states that it does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume is not reported here as liquidity, and the prices do not show how many traders hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price changed, and it does not show current prices. Because each bracket is its own contract, differences in quoted prices do not by themselves indicate an opportunity, since the brackets differ in their exact ranges and boundary rules. Results depend on the official certified count, and a recount would keep the market open until completed [1].
References
- Polymarket: SD-AL House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "SD-AL House Election Margin of Victory" [1]. The contract does not ask who wins the race. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. According to the contract rules, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The event is split into bracketed markets. Each market asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a given range, such as 0 to 10 percent, 10 to 15 percent, or 40 percent or more, and one market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election [1]. Under the rules, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. Because the markets are separate contracts, each one resolves on its own bracket rather than on a shared ranking. The contract states that the 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That date appears in the contract text as an expectation. It is not a confirmed event announcement. The listed end time for these markets is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1], which is a provider listing time, not the date the result is determined.
Historical Context
The supplied background on U.S. House elections is general. Wikipedia's page on the 2018 House elections states that those elections were held on November 6, 2018, were midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, and chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states [3]. That page does not describe the SD-AL race and does not establish any 2026 result. The supplied sources do not provide a history of this particular district or its past margins.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in vote share rather than the winner alone. A bracket resolves on the gap between the first and second place candidates, so the margin can matter even when the outcome of the race is not in doubt [1]. The rules also define how close results are handled. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if two candidates tie for the most votes?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie involves a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1].
What if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
Does a recount affect when the market resolves?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
Which result source does the contract use?
The primary source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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