U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

Name: U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$777.35

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $777.35

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $777.35

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$777.35

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Rose ceases to be the U.S. Ambassador to Poland for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rose's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. govern

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Rose ceases to be the U.S. Ambassador to Poland for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Rose's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. govern

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Rose ceases to be the U.S. Ambassador to Poland for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Rose's resignation/removal before this market's end date will i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $777
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $777
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

28d 15h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TG4I61" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?"></iframe>

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U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

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U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)