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Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Total Volume

$19.80K

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Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $19.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.80K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will any party win at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any party win at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election?	Kalshi	99%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 8, 2026

If any party has won at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, rega

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any party has won at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $890.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any party win at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $19.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

99¢

Kalshi

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Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Will any party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

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Will any party win at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election?

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