GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHICommodities

Gold price at year end?

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Gold price at year end?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	49%
Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	41%
Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	34%
Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	30%
Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	24%
Will the price of Gold be above 4800 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	23%
Will the price of Gold be above 4900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	23%
Will the price of Gold be above 5000 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	17%
Will the price of Gold be above 5100 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	15%
Will the price of Gold be above 5200 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	14%
Will the price of Gold be above 5500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	12%
Will the price of Gold be above 5300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	12%
Will the price of Gold be above 5400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

On December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above X USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gold price at year end?
**Category:** Commodities | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above X USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 5500 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the price of Gold be above 5500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the price of Gold be above 5400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the price of Gold be above 5300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the price of Gold be above 5200 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the price of Gold be above 5100 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the price of Gold be above 5000 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the price of Gold be above 4900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the price of Gold be above 4800 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHICommodities

Gold price at year end?

Volume$0.00

Markets13

13 of 13

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KALSHI

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4300 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

KALSHI

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4400 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

KALSHI

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4500 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

KALSHI

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4600 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

KALSHI

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4700 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Pyth - Gold.

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Average Yes Price

23¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TH0AyZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Gold price at year end?"></iframe>

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Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Gold price at year end?

Markets (13)

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Gold price at year end?

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?

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