Who will win the next Lebanese general election? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

Total Volume

$3.03K

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Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.03K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.03K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Lebanese Forces)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Lebanese Forces)	Kalshi	54%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Amal Movement)	Kalshi	13%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Hezbollah)	Kalshi	12%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (FPM)	Kalshi	7%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Tashnag)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Marada Movement)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Kataeb)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Independence Movement)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (PSP)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$3.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If the winner of the next Lebanese general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is X then the market resolves to Yes. For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the winner of the next Lebanese general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is X then the market resolves to Yes. For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the winner of the next Lebanese general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Tashnag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legisla"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.22M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Tashnag)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (PSP)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Marada Movement)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Kataeb)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Independence Movement)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Hezbollah)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $274
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (FPM)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Lebanese Forces)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Amal Movement)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $634
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Kalshi

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Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

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Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Lebanese Forces)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the next Lebanese general election? (Lebanese Forces)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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