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$4.07K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X is in the top 1 in CNBC's America's Top States for Business study for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets on Kalshi currently assign a low probability to North Carolina securing the top spot in CNBC's 2026 America's Top States for Business ranking. With a "Yes" contract trading at approximately 34 cents, the market implies just a 34% chance that North Carolina will be ranked number one. This pricing suggests traders view the state as a serious contender, but one that is more likely to fall short than to win, reflecting significant competition and uncertainty two years ahead of the official study.
The primary factor supporting North Carolina's position as a frontrunner is its established, multi-year track record of elite performance. The state won CNBC's top ranking in both 2022 and 2023, a historic back-to-back achievement, largely due to its powerful economic growth, strong workforce, and leading position in emerging sectors like electric vehicles and biotechnology. This historical precedent is the bedrock of its 34% probability, which is likely the highest among all 50 states in this thin market.
However, the probability is capped well below 50% because the ranking is intensely competitive and methodology-driven. CNBC's annual study evaluates states across ten broad categories, including infrastructure, cost of doing business, and life/health/inclusion, which can shift yearly with new state legislation, economic developments, and infrastructure projects. A state's victory often depends on a balanced performance across all categories, making repeat wins difficult as other states aggressively target perceived weaknesses in the leader's portfolio.
The odds will be most sensitive to interim CNBC rankings and major, quantifiable economic developments. The 2024 and 2025 CNBC study results will serve as critical leading indicators. If North Carolina retains a top-three position or wins again in either year, its 2026 odds would surge. Conversely, a drop in the rankings would significantly diminish its perceived momentum.
Substantive policy changes in competing states pose the biggest risk. For example, a large competitor like Texas or Florida passing major business-friendly tax or incentive legislation could alter the cost-of-doing-business calculus. Similarly, a major corporate expansion announcement, akin to VinFast or Wolfspeed selecting North Carolina, in another state before 2026 would be a tangible catalyst that could redirect market probability away from the current favorite.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns which U.S. state will be ranked number one in CNBC's annual 'America's Top States for Business' study for the year 2026. CNBC's study is a prominent, data-driven analysis that scores all 50 states across ten broad categories of competitiveness, including Economy, Workforce, Infrastructure, Cost of Doing Business, and Quality of Life. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific state if it achieves the top ranking in the 2026 edition. The outcome is significant as it represents a major public relations and economic development victory, often cited by state governments and economic development agencies to attract corporate investment and talent. Interest in this topic stems from businesses, policymakers, and investors who use the rankings to gauge regional economic health and competitiveness. The annual release generates substantial media coverage and political discourse, as states vie for the top spot to bolster their national reputation. The 2026 ranking is particularly noteworthy as it will reflect economic conditions and policy impacts several years into the future, making early predictions a complex but valuable exercise in forecasting regional economic trends.
CNBC launched the 'America's Top States for Business' study in 2007 as a comprehensive, data-centric alternative to other business climate rankings. The methodology has evolved but consistently uses publicly available data across ten categories, with weightings adjusted annually to reflect current economic priorities. For instance, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 'Life, Health and Inclusion' category was added and heavily weighted, reflecting a new focus on public health and social equity as business factors. Historically, the top spot has been highly competitive. Virginia has been the most frequent winner, securing first place seven times between 2007 and 2023, largely due to its strong workforce and stable economy. Texas, North Carolina, and Washington have also been consistent top-tier performers. The rankings have shown that no single region holds a permanent monopoly on the top position, with states from the South, Midwest, and West Coast all having claimed number one. Past winners have frequently used the accolade in marketing campaigns, such as Texas' 'Texas Wide Open for Business' or North Carolina's promotional efforts following its 2022 and 2023 victories, demonstrating the ranking's tangible value in interstate competition for jobs and investment.
Securing the number one ranking in CNBC's study carries significant real-world economic consequences. For the winning state, it serves as a powerful, third-party validation of its business environment, which can directly influence corporate site selection decisions. Companies expanding or relocating operations use these rankings as a shorthand for evaluating potential locations, meaning the top-ranked state often sees an influx of investment inquiries and job creation announcements. This can lead to a virtuous cycle of economic growth, increased tax revenue, and further improvements in infrastructure and quality of life. Beyond economics, the ranking has substantial political ramifications. Governors and legislators from the top state leverage the achievement for political capital, framing it as evidence of effective governance. Conversely, states that fall in the rankings face public scrutiny and pressure to reform policies. The competition embodied in these rankings drives policy innovation across the country, as states benchmark themselves against leaders and adopt best practices in areas like workforce training, regulatory efficiency, and technology investment, ultimately shaping the national economic landscape.
As of late 2024, North Carolina is the two-time defending champion, having won the top spot in both the 2022 and 2023 CNBC rankings. Its success has been attributed to a strong economy, a deep talent pipeline from its university system, and major corporate investment announcements. The competition for the 2024 ranking is imminent, and its outcome will set the stage for the 2025 and 2026 races. States like Virginia, Texas, and Washington are consistently refining their economic strategies to reclaim or secure the top position. Economic development agencies across the country are actively monitoring CNBC's potential methodology adjustments and positioning their states accordingly, with a particular focus on emerging sectors like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing.
CNBC uses a methodology that scores all 50 states across ten categories of competitiveness. They gather data from a variety of public and private sources, assign weightings to each category based on current economic trends, and calculate a total score out of 2,500 points. The state with the highest score is ranked number one.
Virginia has won the CNBC top ranking more than any other state, securing first place seven times since the study began in 2007. Its consistent performance is often credited to its highly educated workforce and proximity to the federal government in Washington, D.C.
The ten main categories are Economy, Workforce, Infrastructure, Cost of Doing Business, Quality of Life, Technology & Innovation, Business Friendliness, Education, Access to Capital, and Cost of Living. The weight given to each category changes slightly from year to year.
Yes, winning the ranking is a significant marketing tool for state economic development agencies. It generates positive media coverage and is used in presentations to corporate executives, often leading to an increase in business relocation and expansion inquiries.
The rankings are typically announced and profiled in a series of special reports broadcast on CNBC during the summer, usually in July. The full data and state-by-state report cards are published simultaneously on CNBC's digital platforms.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (North Carolina) | Kalshi | 34% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Virginia) | Kalshi | 31% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Texas) | Kalshi | 15% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Georgia) | Kalshi | 9% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Florida) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Tennessee) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Ohio) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Minnesota) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Michigan) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the number 1 US State for Business in 2026? (Indiana) | Kalshi | 2% |
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