Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

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How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.18% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.17% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.16% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.15% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.14% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.13% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.12% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.11% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.10% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

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50%

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$0.00

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About This Event

By Oct 16, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Oct 16, 2026

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.23% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.18% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.17% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.16% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.15% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.14% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.13% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.12% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.11% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.10% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets20

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KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.23% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.0¢No 100.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.22% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.0¢No 100.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.21% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.0¢No 100.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.20% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.0¢No 100.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.19% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026. Resolution is based solely on

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How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Markets (20)

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 16, 2026?

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