Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

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$32.26K

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

Vol

$32.26K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $32.26K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $32.26K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.9 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.0 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.1 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 12, 2026?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$32.26K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 12, 2026 If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 12, 2026

If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Trump's RCP approval average is below 37.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.0 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.9 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.1 on Oct 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

Volume$32.26K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is below 37.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

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12¢

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

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Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

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Events (1)

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

Markets (9)

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

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Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.6 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.7 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.5 on Oct 12, 2026?

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