Name: Most Improved Player Winner
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

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Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?ARB	5%	1%	4%
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?	0%	2%	2%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 30, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Most Improved Player Winner
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2025-26 season

If X wins the Pro basketball Most Improved Player in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Victor Wembanyama wins the Pro basketball Most Improved Player in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $310.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.91)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (3 mkts) vs Kalshi (59 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Victor Wembanyama)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Trey Murphy III)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Shaedon Sharpe)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Scoot Henderson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Reed Sheppard)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Ryan Rollins)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nikola Jovic)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Michael Porter Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Matas Buzelis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Kel'el Ware)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Kevin Porter Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Kyle Filipowski)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jonathan Kuminga)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Johnson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jaden Ivey)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Josh Giddey)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Derrick White)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Cam Whitmore)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Chet Holmgren)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Carlton Carrington)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Brandon Miller)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Bennedict Mathurin)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Ausar Thompson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Alperen Sengun)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Andrew Nembhard)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Amen Thompson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Duren)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $41.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.6% spread between platforms.

### 28. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Deni Avdija)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $239.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.3% spread between platforms.

### 29. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Peyton Watson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Austin Reaves)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Ajay Mitchell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Tie/Co-Winners)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Obi Toppin)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 36. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jabari Smith)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Dereck Lively)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Brandin Podziemski)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 39. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Terrence Shannon Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 40. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Toumani Camara)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 41. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Stephon Castle)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 42. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Santi Aldama)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 43. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Quentin Grimes)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 44. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Keyonte George)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 45. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jared McCain)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 46. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Herbert Jones)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 47. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Cam Thomas)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 48. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Alexandre Sarr)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 49. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Scottie Barnes)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 50. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Suggs)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 51. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Green)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 52. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Davion Mitchell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 53. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Coby White)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 54. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Christian Braun)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 55. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Bilal Coulibaly)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 56. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Aaron Nesmith)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 57. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Max Christie)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 58. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jaylen Wells)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 59. Who will win Most Improved Player? (Donovan Clingan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 60. Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 24, 2026): Vol $29.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

30d 6h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

1¢

Kalshi

4¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

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Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Most Improved Player Winner

NBA Most Improved Player Winner

Markets (28)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Deni Avdija)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Deni Avdija)

Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Duren)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Duren)

Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Victor Wembanyama)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Victor Wembanyama)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Most Improved Player Winner

NBA Most Improved Player Winner

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Deni Avdija)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Deni Avdija)

Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Duren)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Jalen Duren)

Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Victor Wembanyama)

Who will win Most Improved Player? (Victor Wembanyama)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Platform Breakdown

Share

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