$2.41K
1
9
$2.41K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In Jan 2026 If the CPI month-over-month is exactly X in Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The prediction market for whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month change in January 2026 will be exactly -0.1% is currently trading at a price of 50% on Kalshi. This indicates the market views this specific outcome as a coin flip, assigning equal probability to it occurring or not occurring. With only $2,000 in volume spread thinly across nine related markets, this reflects very low liquidity and high uncertainty. The market structure, offering bets on exact percentage points like -0.1%, 0.0%, or 0.1%, inherently makes any single precise outcome statistically unlikely, which contextualizes the 50% price not as a strong forecast but as a baseline in a highly speculative field.
The primary factor is the extreme temporal distance of the event, which is over 21 months away. Macroeconomic forecasting at this horizon is notoriously difficult, as it encompasses multiple Federal Reserve policy cycles, potential geopolitical shocks, and unforeseen shifts in supply chains or labor markets. The 50% price essentially represents a market with no strong directional conviction. Secondly, the specific target of -0.1% month-over-month CPI is significant. It represents a mild deflationary print for a single month. Current inflation dynamics and the Fed's 2% annual target suggest sustained monthly changes around 0.1-0.3% are more typical than negative readings, making an exact -0.1% outcome a low-probability scenario under stable conditions, which the thin market is not actively disputing.
These odds will remain volatile and driven by speculation until late 2025, when actual economic data for the preceding quarters begins to shape expectations for January 2026. Key catalysts will include the Federal Reserve's policy path throughout 2025, especially if it pivots to cutting rates aggressively in response to a recession, which could increase the probability of a negative monthly CPI print. Conversely, a resurgence of inflation due to new supply constraints would make -0.1% far less likely. The market will become significantly more reactive to monthly CPI reports starting in mid-to-late 2025, as they provide the immediate trend leading into the target month. Until then, prices across these exact-outcome markets will likely drift with broad sentiment on inflation rather than concrete analysis.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month for January 2026 is a forward-looking economic indicator that measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services from December 2025 to January 2026. Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this specific monthly inflation reading is a critical data point for financial markets, policymakers, and economists. It provides a snapshot of inflationary pressures at the start of the year, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, bond yields, and corporate earnings forecasts. The January figure is often scrutinized for seasonal adjustment patterns and early signals about annual inflation trends. Interest in this specific forecast stems from its role in shaping monetary policy for the remainder of 2026, impacting everything from mortgage rates to business investment plans. Analysts will compare the actual release against consensus forecasts from major financial institutions to gauge whether inflationary dynamics are accelerating, moderating, or remaining persistent. The outcome will directly affect prediction markets that track economic indicators, as participants bet on whether the reported figure will match, exceed, or fall short of specific thresholds.
The Consumer Price Index has been the primary gauge of U.S. inflation since its formal inception in 1919, with the modern methodology established in 1978. Historically, month-over-month changes have averaged around 0.2% to 0.3% in stable periods, but have shown significant volatility during economic shocks. The high inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, with monthly CPI prints sometimes exceeding 1.0%, led to the Fed's adoption of an explicit inflation-fighting mandate under Chairman Paul Volcker. The period from the early 1990s to 2020, often called the 'Great Moderation,' saw relatively low and stable monthly inflation, typically ranging from 0.1% to 0.4%. This historical precedent set expectations for predictable price changes. The post-pandemic period shattered this stability, with the CPI month-over-month reaching a peak of 1.3% in June 2022, the highest since September 2005. This surge triggered the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle since the 1980s. The path of monthly CPI readings from 2023 through 2025 will set the crucial context for interpreting the January 2026 figure, indicating whether the economy has returned to pre-2020 norms or entered a new regime of higher volatility.
The CPI month-over-month figure for January 2026 matters because it is a leading indicator of purchasing power erosion for American households. A higher-than-expected reading directly reduces real wages and savings, disproportionately impacting low and fixed-income populations. It influences cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits, federal pensions, and millions of unionized labor contracts, directly transferring billions of dollars in income. For financial markets, this single data point can trigger immediate repricing of trillions of dollars in assets. It recalibrates expectations for the path of interest rates, affecting the valuation of stocks, bonds, and real estate. Persistent high monthly inflation readings can force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, increasing the risk of a recession and higher unemployment. Conversely, a lower-than-expected figure could provide room for stimulative policy, supporting economic growth but potentially reigniting inflationary pressures later. The political ramifications are also significant, as inflation consistently ranks as a top voter concern, influencing elections and legislative agendas.
As of late 2024, the inflation landscape is in a state of cautious moderation following the peaks of 2022. The most recent CPI data shows month-over-month changes have cooled significantly from their highs but remain somewhat elevated compared to the pre-2020 decade. The Federal Reserve has signaled a data-dependent approach, indicating that future interest rate decisions will hinge on incoming inflation reports. Market expectations, as reflected in futures and survey data, project a gradual return of monthly CPI changes toward the 0.2% range by 2025-2026, but with considerable uncertainty. Key focus areas include the lagged effect of shelter costs, the stability of goods prices, and wage growth in service sectors. The consensus among many economic forecasters is that the path to January 2026 will be bumpy, with potential for surprises from energy markets or supply chain disruptions.
The month-over-month CPI measures the price change from one month to the next (e.g., December 2025 to January 2026). The year-over-year CPI compares prices to the same month one year earlier (January 2026 vs. January 2025). The monthly figure shows recent momentum, while the annual figure shows the cumulative effect of the past twelve months.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics typically releases the CPI data for a given month around the 13th of the following month. Therefore, the CPI report for January 2026 is expected to be published in mid-February 2026. The exact date is announced in the BLS release calendar.
The Fed uses CPI data as a key input for its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. While its formal target is based on the PCE index, CPI readings significantly influence the Federal Open Market Committee's perceptions of inflation trends and its decisions on setting the federal funds rate.
Headline CPI includes all items in the basket, including volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes food and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying, persistent inflation trends. Policymakers often focus on core inflation for setting long-term policy.
The BLS determines the basket's composition based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which details how Americans spend their money. The weights for categories like shelter, food, and transportation are updated periodically, typically every two years, to reflect changing consumption patterns.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly -0.1%) | Kalshi | 50% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.3%) | Kalshi | 37% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.2%) | Kalshi | 30% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.1%) | Kalshi | 30% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.0%) | Kalshi | 22% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly -0.2%) | Kalshi | 14% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.5%) | Kalshi | 13% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.4%) | Kalshi | 11% |
CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026? (Exactly 0.6%) | Kalshi | 10% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TSIIQi" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CPI month-over-month in Jan 2026?"></iframe>