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| Market | Platform | Price |
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Will Republican win the House race for AR-04? | Kalshi | 97% |
Will Democratic win the House race for AR-04? | Kalshi | 1% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
AR-04 If the House member sworn in for AR-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Prediction markets currently price an 80% probability that a Democrat will win Indiana's 1st Congressional District (IN-01) in the 2026 election. This high confidence level, trading at 80 cents on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the overwhelming favorite outcome. With only $7,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, meaning this price could be more sensitive to new information than a heavily traded market.
The primary factor is the district's strong Democratic lean. IN-01, covering northwestern Indiana including Gary and parts of Lake County, is a D+8 district per the Cook Partisan Voting Index. It has been held by a Democrat for over 90 years, with Representative Frank Mrvan (D) winning re-election in 2022 by a margin of over 10 points. This deep-seated historical and demographic advantage is the bedrock of the market's high probability. Furthermore, the 80% price likely incorporates an expectation that the national political environment in 2026 will not be so severely adverse to Democrats as to overcome this district's intrinsic bias.
The odds could shift significantly with changes in candidate quality or unforeseen scandal. A strong, well-funded Republican challenger, especially one with local appeal that transcends national partisan trends, could narrow the race and lower the Democratic probability. Conversely, the probability could push even higher toward 90% or above if a popular incumbent like Mrvan confirms re-election plans early, solidifying the Democratic advantage. Key dates to watch will be candidate filing deadlines in early 2026 and any major fundraising disclosures, which will provide the first concrete signals of race competitiveness. The thin market volume means any credible news on these fronts could cause a sharp price movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of the 2026 United States House of Representatives election for California's 13th congressional district (CA-13). The market resolves based on which political party's candidate is sworn into office for the term beginning in January 2027. CA-13 is a competitive district in California's Central Valley, encompassing parts of Fresno, Madera, and Merced counties. The district's political dynamics are shaped by its agricultural economy, demographic shifts, and its status as a key battleground in the national fight for control of the House of Representatives. Interest in this market stems from the district's recent electoral volatility, its potential to influence the balance of power in Congress, and the broader national trends it may reflect regarding voter sentiment in a politically mixed region. The outcome will be determined by the November 2026 general election, with the winner sworn in during the first week of January 2027.
California's 13th congressional district has a history of competitive elections and partisan swings, reflecting its status as a genuine political bellwether. The district's boundaries were significantly altered during California's 2021 redistricting cycle, creating a new, more competitive seat from parts of the old 10th, 16th, and 21st districts. Prior to 2022, the area was represented by Democrats like Jim Costa and Republicans like Devin Nunes in different configurations. The 2022 election for the newly drawn CA-13 was one of the closest House races in the nation, with Republican John Duarte defeating Democrat Adam Gray by just 0.4% of the vote. This razor-thin margin underscored the district's status as a pure toss-up. The 2024 election saw a reversal, with Adam Gray defeating the incumbent Duarte, flipping the seat back to Democratic control. This recent volatility, with the seat changing hands in consecutive elections, establishes a clear precedent for highly contested and expensive battles every two years. The district's voting patterns are often seen as a microcosm of the national political mood, particularly regarding the concerns of suburban and rural voters in a politically divided state.
The race for CA-13 has significant implications for national politics. As a perennial swing district, its outcome is a critical component in the battle for majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives. A shift of just a handful of seats can determine which party sets the legislative agenda, controls committee chairs, and initiates investigations. The district's focus on water policy directly impacts the nation's food supply, as the Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. Federal decisions on water allocation from the Sierra Nevada snowpack, managed through projects like the Central Valley Project, have billion-dollar consequences for farmers, consumers, and the environment. Furthermore, the campaign strategies and messaging that succeed in this diverse district, which includes urban Fresno, agricultural towns, and college communities, are studied by national parties as a blueprint for appealing to a broad coalition of voters. The result will signal which party is effectively connecting with key demographic groups, including Latino voters and working-class families, ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
As of late 2024, following the 2024 election, Democrat Adam Gray is the incumbent Representative for CA-13. The political landscape for the 2026 race is beginning to take shape, with both national parties listing the district as a top target. Fundraising efforts for the 2026 cycle are likely already underway for Representative Gray and potential Republican challengers. Key issues are crystallizing around the ongoing drought and water management in the Central Valley, the state of the national economy, and immigration policy. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election and its coattail effects will significantly influence the political environment for this 2026 midterm race.
CA-13 is located in California's Central Valley. It includes the city of Fresno (in part), and all of Madera and Merced counties. The district is largely agricultural but includes urban, suburban, and rural communities.
As of January 2025, the U.S. Representative for California's 13th congressional district is Democrat Adam Gray. He was elected in November 2024 and sworn into office in January 2025.
CA-13 is considered a swing district because its voter registration is nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and its election results have been extremely close. The seat has changed party control in both elections held under its current boundaries (2022 and 2024).
The dominant issues are water policy and agriculture, given the district's farming economy. Other key issues include the cost of living, immigration, healthcare, and crime. Candidates must appeal to both liberal voters in Fresno and conservative voters in rural areas.
With the House of Representatives often controlled by a narrow majority, every competitive seat like CA-13 is critical. The party that wins this district gains one vote toward the 218 needed for a majority, making it a frequent target for national party spending.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The winner will be sworn into office for a two-year term starting in early January 2027, which is when this prediction market will resolve.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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