Wyoming at large House General Election: voter turnout
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Wyoming at large House General Election: voter turnout
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
Wyoming at large House General Election If the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming at large House General Election is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the of
Current Market Outlook
The market gives a 65% chance that total vote count in Wyoming's at-large House election will exceed 194,000. That is a moderate confidence level. It means the market sees this as more likely than not, but with real uncertainty baked in. The threshold of 194,000 is notable: in 2022, total votes cast in the race were 186,423. In 2020, a presidential year with much higher turnout, the number hit 272,000. So the market is essentially betting that turnout will fall between those two recent benchmarks, closer to the 2022 level but slightly above it.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Wyoming has a small and stable electorate. The state has not added many new voters since 2020. Registration has hovered around 280,000 to 290,000 eligible voters. Turnout in midterm House races here has ranged from 160,000 in 2014 to 186,000 in 2022. The 194,000 threshold requires turnout that is about 4% above the 2022 level. That is achievable if the race is competitive or if a ballot measure drives interest, but it is not a lock.
The race itself is for an open seat. Incumbent Liz Cheney lost her primary in 2022 after the January 6 committee. Republican Harriet Hageman won the general easily. In 2024, Hageman is running for reelection and faces a Democratic challenger, but Wyoming is deeply Republican. The race is not expected to be close. That usually depresses turnout. Without a competitive top-of-ticket race, the incentive for casual voters to show up drops.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest upside risk to turnout is if a statewide ballot measure or a high-profile Senate race drives voters. Wyoming has no Senate race in 2024, but there could be local initiatives. The other factor is weather. Wyoming often sees snow during early November. A bad storm on Election Day could drop turnout by 2% to 5%. That alone could push the total below 194,000.
The downside risk is already priced in at 35%. If the race stays noncompetitive and no major issue mobilizes voters, turnout could fall back toward 180,000. The 2022 number was actually an increase from 2018 (182,000), so there is no clear trend of rising turnout. The market's 65% is reasonable but leans optimistic. A more conservative estimate would be 50-50.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
