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UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$21.46K

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UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Vol

$21.46K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.46K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.46K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)	Poly	86%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	70%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	60%
Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?	Poly	53%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	40%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	36%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	26%
Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?	Poly	22%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$21.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Ollie Schmid" if Ollie Schmid is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Ollie Schmid" if Ollie Schmid is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Ollie Schmid" if Ollie Schmid is officially declared the winner.

If the fi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $34.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Marwan Rahiki: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [Ollie Schmid: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $148
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Over: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume$21.46K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marwan Rahiki and Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends

POLYMARKET

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marwan Rahiki defeats Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by dis

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marwan Rahiki and Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draw

POLYMARKET

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ollie Schmid defeats Marwan Rahiki at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by dis

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marwan Rahiki and Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it

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46¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TUtVZH" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

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UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Markets (9)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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