Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?

Name: Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$165.56

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?

Vol

$165.56

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $165.56

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $165.56

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?	Poly	40%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$165.56

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwis

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwis

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $166
* **Total Liquidity:** $212
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Washington voters repeal millionaires tax?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics